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Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Bilibala Finance updates 14/01/28

Bilibala Finance 投資財金, 勝負難分, 分析技藝, 受用一生

Bilibala finance 除了帶你進入財金世界, 分析大市走勢, 企業財務報告, 估值評估. 也帶你穿梭 billy ++bilibala 的分析過程, 他的交易, 持有, 甚至挫敗經驗. 借此反照一個投資者如何跌進, 如何打破那 70% 人失敗的宿命. 作為一個基督徒投資者在一個變幻莫測的金融領域學習作神有所為有所不為的忠信管家.

仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.

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Transactions:
  • While the stock market ran downward, I started pulling $$ from my cookie jar, switching from defensive stocks to my top holdings fell in deep
  • Sold 97% CLP Ltd (0002) at HK$59.5 and HK Stock Exchange (0388) at HK$122.8 and added 3.3% China Mobile (0941/CHL) at HK$74.5, added 1.7% China Life (2628/LFC) at HK$21.4 and added 4.4% China Construction Bank (0939) at HK$5.3.
  • Apple Inc released 14q1 earnings, meet expectation but q2 forecast below analysts' consesus. I keep my target price at US$590 and the BUY recommandation. Because even Apple's q2 sales with no growth compare to prior year, its stock price is low with reaonably high potential. I think the after market fall is an over sell reaction. 
  • Looking forward to review Google Inc (GOOG)'s earning release 2 days later.
 
Top Holding (over 70% concentration, as of Jan 28, 2014)
  1. Google Inc (GOOG) since 09 btw US$287 - 601
  2. China Mobile (CHL/0941) since 05 btw HK$36 - 81
  3. China Life (LFC/2628) since 03 btw HK$3.6 - 22.5
  4. Tiffany + Co (TIF) since 10 btw US$46 - 55
  5. Manulife Financial (MFC/0945) since 09 btw CA$9.7 - 19.5
  6. Wells Fargo (WFC) since 08 btw US$12.5 - 25
  7. China Construction Bank (0939) since 05 btw HK$2.4 - 5.35
  8. Apple Inc (AAPL) since 13 btw US$510-550
  9. General Electric (GE) since 08 btw US$9.5 - 22.3
  10. Starbucks Corporation (SBUK) since 10 btw US$31 - 46.5
  11. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) since 09 US$29 - 45
  12. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) since 11 btw US$63 - 68
  13. Deckor Outdoor (DECK) since 12 btw US$35 - $38
  14. Suncor Energy (SU) since 11 btw CA$29 - 33.5 

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過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!

坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?
bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去10年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.7%, 累積回報 410%. 經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.

儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.
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