Bilibala devotion 13/10/31 萬聖節 cross over 啟示錄

萬聖節和鬼節的由來
萬聖節的可與不可
啟示錄放逐考和逼迫因由再思

 

• Bilibala devotion 13/10/20 兇兆？ 啟示錄引子 

• bilibala devotion 13/10/21 白首太玄經 怎讀對啟示錄

• bilibala devotion 13/10/22 啟示錄 from whom? c1a 

• Bilibala devotion 13/10/29 who are you 啟示錄 c1b 

• Bilibala devotion 13/10/30 放逐 啟示錄 c1c

 

 

 

 

Bilibala Finance 13/10/31 comments on Google Inc

Bilibala Finance 投資財金, 勝負難分, 分析技藝, 受用一生

Bilibala finance 除了帶你進入財金世界, 分析大市走勢, 企業財務報告, 估值評估. 也帶你穿梭 billy ++bilibala 的分析過程, 他的交易, 持有, 甚至挫敗經驗. 借此反照一個投資者如何跌進, 如何打破那 70% 人失敗的宿命. 作為一個基督徒投資者在一個變幻莫測的金融領域學習作神有所為有所不為的忠信管家.

仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.

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Comments on Google Inc's Q3 results

Q4 Facts:

• Revenue: $14.9B, up 11.9%
• Segment revenue: Google site $9.4B, up 22%; network $3.2B, up 1%; others $1.2B up 85% and Motorola $1.2B, down 33.4%
• EPS: $8.75, up 34.0%
• Segment earning: Google $4.6B, up 17.5%, Motorola ($0.25B), enlarged by 29.2%
• Gross margin: 29.2%, up from 28.3%

2013 Facts:

• Revenue: $43.0B, up 20.2%
• EPS: $28.23, up 19.2%

Comments:

I don't like Google's press release, other than financial data, no explanation provided, unless I listen to their webcast for details. Anyway....Q3 results looks great, and I believe Google can continue to grow in 15%-20% for the next 2-3 years given the dominant position in both PC & mobile advertising business, partly offset the loss position in Motorola. I will keep my target price at $1,050 and change recommandation from "Buy" to Hold".

 

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過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!

坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?

bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去10年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.7%, 累積回報 410%. 經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.

儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.

Bilibala devotion 13/10/30 放逐 啟示錄 c1c

靈修分享計劃
誰是約翰
什么是放逐
逼迫期考証

我和管++之家(9) 兩條平衡線的交匯處

幾米的作品"向左走向右走", 刻畫一男一女, 住在同一楝大廈, 互相傾慕, 然而(在未有 smart phone 和面書的世界之先), 只因一人習慣永遠向左走, 另一位習慣永遠向右走, 最後始終貌合神離, 一段情緣無法結合. 在故事中, 幾米提出一個不合羅輯卻又發人深省的問題, "兩條平衡線到底會否出現交叉點的時刻呢?"

有緣無份是一種可惜, 但若那慣向左的男真與那慣向右的女結合, 而倆人有堅持依然故我, 各不相讓, 又要一起生活, 相愛, 終老這才叫苦. 無奈在現實生活, 不少夫妻正在這狀況下糾纏著.
同管++在換什么屋的要求和思維上幾乎完全相反: 管++喜歡兩房兩廳細屋仔, 高雅的外觀, 時尚的室內設計, 交通方便的地點, 屋價最好在六十萬以下.
billy 則要在清幽的地段找間夠實用的大屋, 至少和烏龍同價.

偏好不同, 我認為是正常和自然, 我倆來自不同家庭, 不一樣的成長, 管++一個在加拿大留學十年, 租住一間房加一個廁所, 現在兩個人一個單位也卓卓有餘. billy 在南非長大, 萬尺花園洋房, 不算什么, 加上之前幾篇提及的投資考慮. 所以, 我們沒有一結婚就可換屋的基礎, 不是因財力問題, 而是兩人各自在一平衡線上.

然而, 若有人將兩條平衡線扭一扭角度, 那怕只一點點, 就能漸漸在一交叉點遇上.
用了差不多一年時間主動地了解, 反覆的傾談, 一起耐心等侯, 我想我們不是求一致, 只要有些共同, 互相走近就可以開始換屋計劃

billy 是個審美白痴, 客觀點講, 只要不是太怪太樣衰, billy 就不介意. 管++在這方面有要求才是正常, 而且我信得過她的眼光和taste. 屋的外觀就由管++作主, 室內, 反正也備了一筆錢裝修烏龍, 管++要如何的設計, 要花多少, 我們爭議好一個上限, 一切也由她拍板, 我相信神讓她作主, 我相信她就是我的形像顧問, 她的決定必然比我的好.

另一方面, 管++也願聆聽我的投資分析及長遠 family plan 計劃下的住屋空間需要. 在 size, 屋價和地點上都願意改變初衷.

平衡線交匯只是個起點. 接下來, 神讓我們意識到即使有了了解, 知道彼此的立場和容許對方各展所長, 由於大家起跑線不同, 過程中更需要耐心聆聽和學習. 何謂起跑線不同, 下回繼續分享.

我和管++的家 series:
1. 家+屋
2. 祈禱篇
3. 我的好處不在你以外
4. Location location vocation
5. 能否學校主
6. 樓市不跌又升之謎
7. 這么遠 那么近
8. 計算後的不計算
9. 兩條平衡線的交匯處
10. 不同起跑線上



Bilibala finance 13/10/30 comments on Apple Inc

Bilibala Finance 投資財金, 勝負難分, 分析技藝, 受用一生

Bilibala finance 除了帶你進入財金世界, 分析大市走勢, 企業財務報告, 估值評估. 也帶你穿梭 billy ++bilibala 的分析過程, 他的交易, 持有, 甚至挫敗經驗. 借此反照一個投資者如何跌進, 如何打破那 70% 人失敗的宿命. 作為一個基督徒投資者在一個變幻莫測的金融領域學習作神有所為有所不為的忠信管家.

仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.

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Comments on Apple Inc's Q4 results

Q4 Facts:

• Sales: 33.8M iphone up 25.7% compare to 2012 Q4, 14.1M ipad up 0.7% and 4.6M Macs down 6%
• Revenue: $37.5B up 4.2%
• EPS: $8.31 down 5.1%
• Gross margin down from 40% to 37%

2013 Fasts:

• Revenue: $171B up 9.2%
• EPS: $40.03 down 10.3%
• Gross margin down from 40% to 37%

2014 Q1 Forecast (per Apple Inc):

• Revenue: $55B to $58B, compare to $54.5B in 2013 Q1
• Gross margin 36.5% - 37.5%, compare to 38.6%
• Operating expenses $4.4B to $4.5B, compare to $3.9B
• Which means Apple Inc expected net earning to be $11.6B to $12.9B, compare to $13.1B or down 1.5% to 11.4%

Comments:

Strong sales in iphone is a good news, I still think iphone is the best phone in the market, given the great harmonize between its hardware & software. According to ComScore, Apple has 40.7% smart phone market as of Aug 13, while a) consumers will buy new phones every two years, b) in coming 2 years, more additional consumers will switch to smart phone; c) potential deal with China Mobile to increase iphone sales.

 

If there are no strong competitor enter into the market in near future, sales will sustend, so I think Apple's 2014 Q1 Forecast is quite conservative and should easily achieve.

 

As Apple Inc's current price over earning ratio is similar to IBM, an much more "mature" company lack of chance to enjoy double digit growth, I think Apple Inc's market price is fairly reasonable. I change the target price from US$500 to US550. If it can finalize the deal with China Mobile, it will worth US$590.

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過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!

坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?

bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去10年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.7%, 累積回報 410%. 經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.

儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.

Bilibala devotion 13/10/29 who are you 啟示錄 c1b

羅馬假期小小感恩
佢係我邊個
佢係佢o既邊個

銀行家的賭局(2) 引力邊緣之let go

再談一眾銀行"家"郊遊日那天

我和另一位同事一組, 入賭場, 抱住十賭九輸, 不賭不輸的原則入賭場觀戰. 如果其他組輸, 我們就贏, 哈哈!

那知入到賭場, 見到大老細"墨者"(senior vice president, 墨西哥人), 和他一組, 他一早已在賭場.

當他知道我們有這樣的戰略, 一臉不屑的 rejected,"你倆個是來比賽的么? 就算輸了也要有點體育精神, 更何況我們好有機會贏. lets go."
(果然係老細, 忽然令我聯想到馬太福音25章, 主怎樣責備那為保本而埋銀於地的"惡"僕.)

墨者搶了同事手上的廿蚊, 去玩輪盤. 原來, 其他所有組都在不同賭檯玩輪盤, 也許是因為以或然率計, 那是整個賭場裡最有利賭仔的賭法, 除了 0 + 00, 買紅買黑, 贏的機會率是 47.36%(跟賭大細差不多).

墨者觀戰了幾回都開黑色後, 將廿蚊壓注紅色, 贏了! 再觀戰幾回, 壓黑色又贏. 十分鐘, 廿蚊變八十.
(急財, easy money 就是許多人為賭著迷甚至入瘋之因由. 補充是: 跟據統計學的 random outcome and mutually exclusive result, 觀戰其實無改 47.36% "贏面"這個或然率.)

在這場賭賽中, 我不是搏殺的賭仔, 乃是盡忠職守的分析員(在銀行, 在賭場, 在信仰以致旅行都一樣). 我遊走全場, 收集數據, 向大老細匯報各組最新的 asset values , 做出勝算評估.

只十分鐘已有兩組被賭場剝光豬(果然十賭九輸), 另一組去玩老虎機, 估計在餘下十分鐘, 若聽不到 jackpot 的叫聲, 大概是冇贏冇輸居多, 墨者已贏了六十, 該可以見好就收手.

還有一組在另一張檯賭輪盤.
他們用了一種較"進取"的方法: "分散"投機, 又買紅(黑), 又騎牆的買點數, 連 00都買. 居然俾他們中左. 5蚊變 90, 扣除輸掉的另外15蚊, 淨贏 70. 看樣子他們有百多元籌碼, 會就這樣金盤洗手.
(其實買點數 say 0 or 00, 中的機率是 38 份一, 而賠率卻只有17倍, 比較單買紅/黑, 賭仔的終極回報率會降低許多.)

當墨者知道這些數據後, 決定再下注. 最後廿蚊贏了八十蚊. 我們組每人分得廿蚊.

比賽結果:
老虎機組有 36
00組有 141
墨者有 100

00 組贏.
不過由於00組在原有賭本之上加了40自家賭本, 犯規被取消資格. 不然, 單計淨回報, 他們剛好比我們賺多一蚊.
(其實冇規定不可注資, 00組辯稱說這是一份 think outside the box 的創意, 但鬼叫大老細在墨者組, 主持人判00組犯規, 上訴無效, 墨者組勝.)

獎品是每組員一支飲"瓜理"白酒.

good game to all the teams.

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分享完一場銀行家的廿蚊對賭大賽, 又返來再分享 billy 不賭的原因. 這跟聖經教人不可貪戀別人之物, 不可事奉兩個主, 不受轄制以及不做壞榜樣沒太多關係. 不是我不認同那些教導, 而是我認為那些教導, 一, 泛指一切生活而不是單單針對賭博, 二, 單以我自身而言, 我沒有受它轄制, 其程度又未至於成為我的主人, 我相信像我這樣的大有人在.
我仍堅持不賭, 就連公司合買六合彩也不參與, 有另一些原因.

不賭的原因:
a. 狹義的個人原因
或然率是數學程式, 本身是絕對公平. 然而賭場雖然用上這些程式, 卻定下不公平的規則, ie 0 + 00 通殺. 致使長期賭錢(除非做莊), 必輸無疑. 我又何必去投資時間和金錢在必輸無疑又不公不義的賭局上呢?

用這道理放在賭馬, 賭波, 賭牌, 賭窩輪上或者有所不同.
因為它們不全建基在或然率上, 而是可以 study 和分析, 是有技術可尋. 但它們也許隱藏了一些資訊不對稱風險. ie 騎師可造馬, 牌可出千, 窩輪可造市造價.
有道是: 君子不立危牆之下, 除非有內幕又或者練就一身好本領, 不然, 對資訊和技術差的一方, 那仍是一場不公平的對決.

就算有內幕又或者練就一身本領, 是否可參與?
這要引申到第二個不賭的原因

b. 廣義的社會原因
賭博是一個透過某事件的結局而進行資產轉移的活動. 有人稱它為一場零和遊戲. 因為其活動無法令交易雙方產生更大的效益或提高生產力, 永遠有一方贏, 得; 另一方輸, 有同等值的失.

在這賭博過程當中, 浪費了參與各方本來可以花在更有意義(say family gathering, clarity, or just 享受)或經濟效益(工作, 創意)上的寶貴時間和精力. 因此賭博是有 opportunity costs.

再者, 賭博非但不能創造效益, 而且它實在是負產值遊戲.
假設賭徒 A 去賭塲賭, 1000玩 21點. 贏了, 變2,000, 輸掉, 變 0, 財富轉移是 1,000.

賭徒 B 看穿了賭場莊食筴桾這不公平規則, 於是花時間鑽研賭術, 計數莊家16點以下焗要牌的或然率和注碼間的相互關係, 令自己贏多輸少的機會率增加. 但由於鑽研所花的時間和"學費"都是用在這無法為社會帶來效益的活動上, 所以它其實是一種支出. 為叫財富轉移到己方的機率提高, 假設花了 100 等值的心思. 於是這交易就等於賭場失 1000, 而賭徒 B只得 900.

又假如賭場見越來越多人賭術技巧提高令其賺少左, 於是增加其不公平性(數牌困難度, 一副牌變四牌, 隨時開新牌等), 監視, 荷官的反數牌的發牌手法和速度等. 這一切又成為了更大的支出. 最後引來一惡性循環, 直到達至一 equalibrum, 雙方都覺得這樣下去不如不賭. 然而 equalibrum 代表這種財富轉移不再是 1000 to 1000, 而是 1000 to 800, 甚至更少.

這道理應用在股票投資上亦有提醒作用. 究竟我們股票投資是短線買賣的零和遊戲, 還是持有一股票, 使其取得並運用資本為企業和社會創造更大的效益呢?

c. 傳統原因
最後, 我有一合情卻未必完全合理的原因. 中國人傳統上好賭, 身邊亦有許多因賭而迷失, 害了自己又害了屋企人的故事發生.

華人教會因為這個背景而非常積極反賭, 打麻雀, 入賭場玩老虎機, 槌 dee, 六合彩, 無論賭幾細, 貪不了什么財, 甚至難以令人不能自扙, 總之你連想一想, 都是一宗罪. 你可以不行公義, 不好憐憫, 但你買六合彩, 你講粗口就是罪大惡極.

我明白和理解當中的善良和情意結, 亦尊重這些傳統思維.

結語
我只想說, 不賭不是一教條, 甚至不是直接出於聖經. 信徒必需盲目和亂quote 經文去遵守.

不賭有其不公平, 贏不了, 損害己身和社會利益的許多原因是信徒和非信徒都該思考 明白後, 不難作出取捨的一種生活取向.
若定要搬出聖經理據, 我會說這是箴言, 神教我們不做蠢人, 在花錢花時間花心思上, 都要學做智慧人. once again, 這仍不是一項教條, 你可憑智慧在生活不同場景做決定. 例如, 那天我選擇了入賭場同同事玩這場賭局, 在平日我選擇不參與同事集體買六合彩的慣例等等.

後話
你或者會問, 假如眾同事真的贏了我會後悔嗎?

我會答,"會後悔一段時間." 但這近乎冇可能, 真的贏左先算.

用 decision tree 方式, 每周省 5蚊不買六合彩一年就省 260, 每年回報 10%, 45年就能累積到近廿萬, 穩勝視乎回報, say 有30%機會率. 同同事一起中獎只能分到二百萬, 但機會率近乎零.
智慧的決擇仍是不去買.

羅馬假期(1)

來到羅馬, 酒店仍有免費wifi, 但慢得悽慘, 無法支撐我們 skype 打電話回加拿大, upload 靈修分享更不用說了. 返加後再續, 唯有.

這裡教堂林立, 外表平平無奇的裡面都金碧輝煌, 街道有亂糟糟, 也有熱鬧非常充滿藝術氣氛的廣場. 開始明, 為何金枝玉葉(roman holiday)會選在這裡取景(有柯德利夏萍, 其實邊度敢景都冇所謂), 又開始明白為何賊仔爬手多, 遊客仍然喜歡到羅馬而且有的更再遊羅馬.

至於我和管++, 還有太多來到之地, 去過, 再遊羅馬也是好的. 到那日, 可能是十年, 十多年後, 相信舊地重遊倫敦, 巴黎, 羅馬等地, 會添上一份感觸

bilibala devotion 13/10/22 啟示錄 from whom? c1a

from whom, to whom and about what?

bilibala devotion 13/10/21 白首太玄經 怎讀對啟示錄

Bilibala devotion 13/10/20 兇兆？ 啟示錄引子

Bilibala Bible Reading 101 EP05 潛行空間

bilibala devotion 13/10/19 小結 雅各書

銀行家的賭局(1)制服誘惑之蒼白無力

公司郊遊日, 去尼瓜拉瓜瀑布, 搭船玩衝"浪", 在當地的尼瓜拉瓜 理工(簡稱瓜理)午餐.

這裡的餐廳很特別. 菜蔬都是農務系種, 午餐是餐廚系煮, 待應是酒店系的同學當, 花園是園藝系打理, 就連所釀的酒是調酒系的同學釀, 明符其實的"來釀我跟你酒"!
學生不但要讀, 還要落手落腳實習, 學費照交, 盈收當然是阿公袋袋平安. 果然是做瓜理的學生.

想不到食瓜理的午餐食唔瓜而且這么有水準. 但願學生們可以順利升學同畢業, 他日更加頂瓜瓜.

一行廿六人, 分成五組進行混合式 PK賽 - 遊戲是每組派廿蚊, 入賭場賭20分錢. 贏得最多錢的那一組就贏. 每一組可以連本帶"利"的平所有錢.

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你可能立刻會浮現兩個猶疑:
1. 基督徒是否不能賭?
2. 在這種情況下又如何?

直接反賭嗎?
其實為什么基督徒是否賭?
這是教會的傳統還是聖經教導? 要是聖經教導, 它是個直接的禁令, 還是間接由原則著手的指引呢?

(我不是教會柱石雅各, 也不是牧師, 不過是一經常大言不慚喜愛分析的讀經人. 所以我不求你快快的讀"下面的見解, 只希望你慢慢的動怒, 讀完才發作未遲)

印象中, 聖經沒有直接禁止賭, 我們大概也不能因兵丁用賭去贏耶穌那紫色的袍就說賭是犯罪. 反而, 聖經約書亞記, 撒母耳記有用抽籤方法去抽出罪人亞干, 以色列第一個王掃羅, 就算到了新約也用此法選了馬提亞去 replace 賣主的猶大.

牧者普遍對抽籤反感, 認為這方法不夠屬靈. 但也許無論你個人怎樣, 一定要承認除了平時玩遊戲分組, 抽獎我們會用這方法, 聖經從來沒有踩低此法, 而且不少重要決定都用它(尤其是用理性和經驗揀到最後, 乃無定案時, 抽籤代表將決定權交給神, 是主權放下的行動). 所以, 對於 50 50 的僵局, 慬慎地用它, 我認為冇問題. 因為它其實是個公平的或然率統計數式.
而賭博和抽纖最大的共通點就是它同樣是個或然率統計數式, 按照randomly 得出來的結果定勝負, 而按這結果進行資源和財富的從新分配.
即使什么輪盤, 廿一點, 六合彩....仍然是或然率統計數式, 只是複習程度的深淺之別而矣!

若從這方法角度而言, 聖經不反對用這種方法來做決定甚至資源分配.

間接反賭嗎?
那么聖經有否間接反賭呢?

a. 被人家見你賭是否有辱主名?
經驗告訴我, 世上有太多比賭更有辱主名的行為.
你做工做唔惦, 顧教會而不顧家, 冇牧師或教友會知道, 但這些都有辱主名, 賭? 只要你不問人借, 不影響他人, 你賭到點, 冇人理你! who cares? 未信的根本不會覺得是問題, 既然不是問題又怎會覺得你有問題?

b. 不要被它轄制?
那是否代表我不要被它轄制就可以賭? 任何事都有上癮的可能, 但求 everything balance 不止基督徒, 這是全人類在這後現代的世界都如鹿渴慕的.

c. 不可貪財
那我日做夜做求糊口, 將儲蓄用來投資, 去到什么程度才是貪財? 亞伯拉罕, 以撒, 和將埃及全地財富贏得清光的約瑟又是否貪財? 查聖經, 第十誡其實是吩咐人不可貪別人之物. 而新約有關貪財教導有不少是要防止傳道人假公濟私. 當然, 信徒理當追求主, 不應貪愛錢財, 但假如我賭不是為貪財呢?

打衛生麻雀如何? 在網上玩計分的 pocker, 又或者像我這樣, 比賽/遊戲性質, 注碼只有廿蚊, 而且不是我出錢又如何?
你很難說廿蚊是貪財罷? 對比某些買屋求升值的人(包括我)又或者教會某些力谷建堂的行為(當然只是小部份 bad example 而言), 這算什么貪財呢?

不想寫太長, 下一回再分享在瓜理賭場風雲的比賽的戰情, 結果, 和真正不該賭, 賭就正 poor boy的原因.

Bilibala finance updates 13/10/18

Bilibala Finance 投資財金, 勝負難分, 分析技藝, 受用一生

Bilibala finance 除了帶你進入財金世界, 分析大市走勢, 企業財務報告, 估值評估. 也帶你穿梭 billy ++bilibala 的分析過程, 他的交易, 持有, 甚至挫敗經驗. 借此反照一個投資者如何跌進, 如何打破那 70% 人失敗的宿命. 作為一個基督徒投資者在一個變幻莫測的金融領域學習作神有所為有所不為的忠信管家.

仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.

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Transaction & Market comments

 

Lots of activities today:

• Reduced 100% Apple Inc (AAPL) at US$503 (yesterday, original cost around US$461.5), whenever it rises above $500, its no longer at my bargining zone and opportunity costs of holding it increased.
• Added back 5% China Mobile (CHL/0941) at US$55.05 from what's cover call being exercised previously.
• Added 50% International Business Machine (IBM) at US$174.5, IBa great company like IBM, rise & fall due to target miss is normal, an investor should keep holding and buy whenever is low (I will say below  US$190).
• Newly added Goldman Sech (GS) at US$157.8, since Goldman Sech is an investment bank and its business is highly risky with leverage capital, weak control & proceduce in trading. I will have a buy below 160 & sell above 170 strategy
• Plan to sell 5.5% China Life (LFC/2628) at US$40, once again, due to portfolio alignment.

Google Inc (GOOG) rise above $1,000 today, I bought back majority of covered call when Google dropped to US$870 two weeks ago. Thanks Giving for the Big gains!! I can most likely meet my readjusted 2013 target return.

 

I've made another cover call with exercise price of US1,000 expired in Dec 2013.

No chance to review Q3 results in details yet.

 

I expect a price drop of Starbucks (SBUX) result release on Oct 31, 2013, guessimate a fall to a range between US$70 to $75.

 

Performance (as of Sep 30, 2013)
	2013/09	2012	2011	2010	2009
US S&P	17.9%	13.4%	0.0%	12.8%	67.2%
CA TSX	2.8%	4.0%	-11.1%	14.4%	57.0%
UK FTSE	11.4%	5.8%	-5.6%	9.0%	56.4%
HK HIS	2.1%	22.9%	-20.0%	5.3%	104.9%
CN SHI	-5.0%	3.1%	-21.7%	-14.3%	96.8%
Bilibala	4.5%	23.1%	-7.6%	6.4%	115.2%

 

Bilibala's +4.5% performance was driven by +9.8% unrelaized gains in US/CA corporations (mainly Google Inc, Manulife Financial, Tiffany + co and Wells Fargo), +3% exact gains as invest during global equity market fall in 3Q. It is partially offset by -4.4% losses in Barrick Gold and Apple Inc in Q1, due to Bilibala's miss judgement & slow awareness to re-estimation (partly due to stress @ workplace in Q1), and -3.9% reduction in unrealized gains in Asia Corporations (mainly China Life and China Construction Bank).

 

Bilibala re-adjusted his target to make 8-10% return in 2013, lower than 10 years' average return of 17.7% due to the loss in Apple Inc & Barrick Gold mentioned, and the huge ytd change in unrealized loss in China Life.

 

Assets Mix (as of Sep 30, 2013)

By region

• US 43%
• Emerging 34%
• Canada 17%
• Europe Market 6%

By Industry

• Insurance 19%
• Banking 14%
• IT 13%
• Telecom 12%
• Consumer 9%
• Energy 7%
• Food 7%

Top Holding (over 70% concentration, as of Sep 30, 2013)

1. Google Inc (GOOG) since 09 btw US$287 - 601

Google Inc. (Google) is a global technology company focused on improving the ways people connect with information. The Company generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. As of December 31, 2011, the Company's business was focused on areas, such as search, advertising, operating systems and platforms, and enterprise. Businesses use its AdWords program to promote their products and services with targeted advertising. In addition, the third parties that comprise the Google Network use its AdSense program to deliver relevant advertisements that generate revenue.  

2. China Mobile (CHL) since 05 btw HK$36 - 76

China Mobile Limited is a telecommunication company which provides mobile telecommunications and related services in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and directly-administered municipalities in Mainland China and Hong Kong. As of December 31, 2012, its total customer reached 710 million. The largest in the world.

3. China Life (LFC) since 03 btw HK$3.6 - 22.5

China Life Insurance Company Limited is a China-based life insurance company. The Company through its subsidiaries is engaged in writing of life insurance business, providing life, annuities, accident and health insurance products in China. It has a dominant market shares of above 40% in China's life insurance in force policies.

4. Manulife Financial (MFC) since 09 btw CA$9.7 - 19.5

Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) is a Canada-based financial services group with principal operations in Asia, Canada and the United States. The Company's segments are Asia, Canadian and U.S. Divisions and the Corporate and Other segment. The Company's international network agents and distribution partners offers financial protection and wealth management products and services to clients. It also provides asset management services to institutional customers.

5. Tiffany + Co (TIF) since 10 btw US$46 - 55

Tiffany + Co. is a holding company that operates through its subsidiary companies. The Company's principal subsidiary, Tiffany and Company (Tiffany), is a jeweler and specialty retailer whose principal merchandise offering is jewelry. Its the 2nd largest Jewelry company in the world.

6. Wells Fargo (WFC) since 08 btw US$12.5 - 25

Wells Fargo +Company is a bank holding company. The Company is a diversified financial services company. It has three operating segments: Community Banking, Wholesale Banking and Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement. It is also the largest investment in Warren Buffet's Burkshire Hathaway stock portfolio which he bought & hold and still keeps buying for over 20 years.  

7. China Construction Bank (0939) since 05 btw HK$2.4 - 5.35

China Construction Bank Corporation is a commercial bank. The principal activities of the Group are the provision of corporate and personal banking services, conducting treasury business, the provision of asset management, trustee, finance leasing, investment banking, insurance and other financial services. The bank has approximately 13,629 domestic branches, it is the second largest bank in China by market capitalization. 

8. General Electric (GE) since 08 btw US$9.5 - 22.3

General Electric Company (GE) is a diversified technology and financial services company. The products and services of the Company range from aircraft engines, power generation, water processing, and household appliances to medical imaging, business and consumer financing and industrial products.

9. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) since 09 US$29 - 45

The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The Company operates in five business segments: Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer Products and Interactive.

10. Starbucks Corporation (SBUK) since 10 btw US$31 - 46.5

Starbucks Corporation is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee operating in 60 countries. The Company purchases and roasts coffees that it sells, along with handcrafted coffee, tea and other beverages and a variety of fresh food items, through Company-operated stores. As of September 30, 2012, it operated 9,405 Company-operated stores and 8,661 licensed stores.

11. Suncor Energy (SU) since 11 btw CA$29 - 33.5

Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor) is an integrated energy company. The Company is focused on developing petroleum resource basins-Canada's Athabasca oil sands. In addition, the Company explore for, acquire, develop, produce and market crude oil and natural gas in Canada and internationally, and the Company transports and refines crude oil, and market petroleum and petrochemical products primarily in Canada. The Company operates under three segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing.  

12. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) since 11 btw US$63 - 68

Royal Dutch Shell plc (Shell) is an independent oil and gas company. The Company owns, directly or indirectly, investments in the numerous companies constituting Shell. Shell is engaged worldwide in the principal aspects of the oil and gas industry and also has interests in chemicals and other energy-related businesses.

13. Deckor Outdoor (DECK) since 12 btw US$35 - $38

Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs footwear developed for both high performance outdoor activities and everyday casual lifestyle use. The Company markets its products under three brands: UGG, Teva, and Sanuk.

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過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!

坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?

bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去10年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.7%, 累積回報 410%. 經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.

儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.

臨行密密忙

還有一日出發去義大利旅行, 忙.

忙預備行程
機票, 酒店, 火車及行程都安排好. reconfirm, check 火車月台和時間, 收拾行李, , book airport parking 和兌換幾百元零用錢還是要密密忙.
聞說當地爬手和搶野好厲害, 要預備的都預備了 (ie 用保鮮密密袋, 將一切行程 confirmation scanned 上網 etc), 求主保守, "你睇我地唔到, 你睇我地唔到, 你硬睇我地冇財寶." 若然真的遇上, 就求主保守我們平安返加.

忙年尾預算
billy 公司轉 ledger and reporting systems, 又加上做年尾預算, 已經一連幾日加班(冇補水), 明天起飛, 想加也加不了, 要早回公司. 個系統, 豬腦同 printer 頻頻死, 更是火上加油, 點算, 救火啊!
管++比 billy 更忙, so crazy.

忙結算日
明天是結算日, 這兩星期又是第三季業績公佈期. 勁多分析要做. 谷歌和通用電器出公佈了 q3 results, 我一定要讀完和分析完, 定好下一步才安心讓 billy 去玩. 上到飛機再做!
Google 收市後大升, 更加要讀清楚是虛火還是實力.

忙事奉
今日剛寫完一篇基教刊物的專訪稿, 今晚定要完成本周日的主日學課程錄音
想同 caroline , edmond 為周六北灣禱告, 以及同 vickie 報告一下 connection tea house.
當一切做完, 到機場, 過了關, 再電聯.

忙煲 rise and fall of rome
快煲完. 好叫我對 rome 歷史更了解. 入到博物館不用由零開始, 趣味更濃! 打算淨帶 3 本 e book去讀, 輕省一點.

屬修分享, 只要有 wifi, 就可以繼續. 走著瞧罷!

Bilibala Finance update 13/10/16

Bilibala Finance 投資財金, 勝負難分, 分析技藝, 受用一生

Bilibala finance 除了帶你進入財金世界, 分析大市走勢, 企業財務報告, 估值評估. 也帶你穿梭 billy ++bilibala 的分析過程, 他的交易, 持有, 甚至挫敗經驗. 借此反照一個投資者如何跌進, 如何打破那 70% 人失敗的宿命. 作為一個基督徒投資者在一個變幻莫測的金融領域學習作神有所為有所不為的忠信管家.

仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.

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Transaction & Market comments

• Sold all Rogers Communication (RCI.B) at CA$45.85 (originally purchased at around CA$42 or CA$43, when price dropped as US invetor might potentially purchased Wind Mobile) As price rise back to "normal", time to sell
• Bought back LVMH (LVMUY) at US$37.08 (sold previously at around US$40.5) & used the extra gains to add 8% holding.

Plan to sell 5.5% China Life (LFC) for alignment purpose only, I will comment on General Electric (GE) and Google Inc (GOOG)'s result on tomorrow or Friday.

 

Performance (as of Sep 30, 2013)
	2013/09	2012	2011	2010	2009
US S&P	17.9%	13.4%	0.0%	12.8%	67.2%
CA TSX	2.8%	4.0%	-11.1%	14.4%	57.0%
UK FTSE	11.4%	5.8%	-5.6%	9.0%	56.4%
HK HIS	2.1%	22.9%	-20.0%	5.3%	104.9%
CN SHI	-5.0%	3.1%	-21.7%	-14.3%	96.8%
Bilibala	4.5%	23.1%	-7.6%	6.4%	115.2%

 

Bilibala's +4.5% performance was driven by +9.8% unrelaized gains in US/CA corporations (mainly Google Inc, Manulife Financial, Tiffany + co and Wells Fargo), +3% exact gains as invest during global equity market fall in 3Q. It is partially offset by -4.4% losses in Barrick Gold and Apple Inc in Q1, due to Bilibala's miss judgement & slow awareness to re-estimation (partly due to stress @ workplace in Q1), and -3.9% reduction in unrealized gains in Asia Corporations (mainly China Life and China Construction Bank).

 

Bilibala re-adjusted his target to make 8-10% return in 2013, lower than 10 years' average return of 17.7% due to the loss in Apple Inc & Barrick Gold mentioned, and the huge ytd change in unrealized loss in China Life.

 

Assets Mix (as of Sep 30, 2013)

By region

• US 43%
• Emerging 34%
• Canada 17%
• Europe Market 6%

By Industry

• Insurance 19%
• Banking 14%
• IT 13%
• Telecom 12%
• Consumer 9%
• Energy 7%
• Food 7%

Top Holding (over 70% concentration, as of Sep 30, 2013)

1. Google Inc (GOOG) since 09 btw US$287 - 601

Google Inc. (Google) is a global technology company focused on improving the ways people connect with information. The Company generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. As of December 31, 2011, the Company's business was focused on areas, such as search, advertising, operating systems and platforms, and enterprise. Businesses use its AdWords program to promote their products and services with targeted advertising. In addition, the third parties that comprise the Google Network use its AdSense program to deliver relevant advertisements that generate revenue.  

2. China Mobile (CHL) since 05 btw HK$36 - 76

China Mobile Limited is a telecommunication company which provides mobile telecommunications and related services in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and directly-administered municipalities in Mainland China and Hong Kong. As of December 31, 2012, its total customer reached 710 million. The largest in the world.

3. China Life (LFC) since 03 btw HK$3.6 - 22.5

China Life Insurance Company Limited is a China-based life insurance company. The Company through its subsidiaries is engaged in writing of life insurance business, providing life, annuities, accident and health insurance products in China. It has a dominant market shares of above 40% in China's life insurance in force policies.

4. Manulife Financial (MFC) since 09 btw CA$9.7 - 19.5

Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) is a Canada-based financial services group with principal operations in Asia, Canada and the United States. The Company's segments are Asia, Canadian and U.S. Divisions and the Corporate and Other segment. The Company's international network agents and distribution partners offers financial protection and wealth management products and services to clients. It also provides asset management services to institutional customers.

5. Tiffany + Co (TIF) since 10 btw US$46 - 55

Tiffany + Co. is a holding company that operates through its subsidiary companies. The Company's principal subsidiary, Tiffany and Company (Tiffany), is a jeweler and specialty retailer whose principal merchandise offering is jewelry. Its the 2nd largest Jewelry company in the world.

6. Wells Fargo (WFC) since 08 btw US$12.5 - 25

Wells Fargo +Company is a bank holding company. The Company is a diversified financial services company. It has three operating segments: Community Banking, Wholesale Banking and Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement. It is also the largest investment in Warren Buffet's Burkshire Hathaway stock portfolio which he bought & hold and still keeps buying for over 20 years.  

7. China Construction Bank (0939) since 05 btw HK$2.4 - 5.35

China Construction Bank Corporation is a commercial bank. The principal activities of the Group are the provision of corporate and personal banking services, conducting treasury business, the provision of asset management, trustee, finance leasing, investment banking, insurance and other financial services. The bank has approximately 13,629 domestic branches, it is the second largest bank in China by market capitalization. 

8. General Electric (GE) since 08 btw US$9.5 - 22.3

General Electric Company (GE) is a diversified technology and financial services company. The products and services of the Company range from aircraft engines, power generation, water processing, and household appliances to medical imaging, business and consumer financing and industrial products.

9. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) since 09 US$29 - 45

The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The Company operates in five business segments: Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer Products and Interactive.

10. Starbucks Corporation (SBUK) since 10 btw US$31 - 46.5

Starbucks Corporation is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee operating in 60 countries. The Company purchases and roasts coffees that it sells, along with handcrafted coffee, tea and other beverages and a variety of fresh food items, through Company-operated stores. As of September 30, 2012, it operated 9,405 Company-operated stores and 8,661 licensed stores.

11. Suncor Energy (SU) since 11 btw CA$29 - 33.5

Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor) is an integrated energy company. The Company is focused on developing petroleum resource basins-Canada's Athabasca oil sands. In addition, the Company explore for, acquire, develop, produce and market crude oil and natural gas in Canada and internationally, and the Company transports and refines crude oil, and market petroleum and petrochemical products primarily in Canada. The Company operates under three segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing.  

12. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) since 11 btw US$63 - 68

Royal Dutch Shell plc (Shell) is an independent oil and gas company. The Company owns, directly or indirectly, investments in the numerous companies constituting Shell. Shell is engaged worldwide in the principal aspects of the oil and gas industry and also has interests in chemicals and other energy-related businesses.

13. Deckor Outdoor (DECK) since 12 btw US$35 - $38

Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs footwear developed for both high performance outdoor activities and everyday casual lifestyle use. The Company markets its products under three brands: UGG, Teva, and Sanuk.

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過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!

坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?

bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去10年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.7%, 累積回報 410%. 經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.

儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.

Bilibala devotion 13/10/16 維基解密 雅各畫 c5c

今次用 雅各畫 c5 cover over 香港電視不獲發牌事件.

intro
為王維基不值
Q: 囤地波, 唔敢樑是基督徒中的敗類還是狗官中的基督徒?

忍耐再 recap
忍耐之內函

• 誓
• 苦
• 病
• 回

ie, 以利亞 cross over 農夫 cover over  狗官

 

Bilibala Finance updates 13/10/14 (with analysis on Wells Fargo)

Bilibala Finance 投資財金, 勝負難分, 分析技藝, 受用一生
Bilibala finance 除了帶你進入財金世界, 分析大市走勢, 企業財務報告, 估值評估. 也帶你穿梭 billy ++bilibala 的分析過程, 他的交易, 持有, 甚至挫敗經驗. 借此反照一個投資者如何跌進, 如何打破那 70% 人失敗的宿命. 作為一個基督徒投資者在一個變幻莫測的金融領域學習作神有所為有所不為的忠信管家.
仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.

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Wells Fargo's 13Q3 Financial Result
Fact:

• $5.6B net income, up 13% from 12q3, up 1% from 13q2
• EPS $0.99 for 3q, $2.89 2013 9M vs $2.45 2012 9M
• ROA of 1.53%, up 8 bps from 12q3
• ROE of 14.07%, up 69 bps
• Book value $28.98, market price $41.32, P/B ratio 1.43, up from 1.35
• Efficiency ratio 59.1% up 4 bps
• Tier 1 capital ratio 12.15% up 6 bps
• Net interest margin of 3.38% down 28 bps
• Loan to deposit ratio of 85.6%, down from 86.7%
• Allowance for credit losses of 1.93% down 34 bps

Comments:
Wells Fargo once again had a pretty great quarter with record net income again and continue improvement in capital ratio, % credit losses to total loan and loan to deposit ratio, which reflect better creditor portfolio's risk management. On the other hand, given the interest margin continue to narrow down, while further drop in % credit losses rate will be very limited, because it has already dropped back to the pre-financial crisis level. I don't think Wells Fargo will have double digit EPS increase next year (unless it cut expenses significantly, which sound unlikely).

P/B and P/E still in a reasonable range, with 6% discount rate, my calculated intrinsic value is US$45 per share. I will keep holding Wells Fargo as my 6th largest holding. But I won't re-consider to hold addition shares unless it dropped below US$40.

Performance (as of Sep 30, 2013)
	2013/09	2012	2011	2010	2009
US S&P	17.9%	13.4%	0.0%	12.8%	67.2%
CA TSX	2.8%	4.0%	-11.1%	14.4%	57.0%
UK FTSE	11.4%	5.8%	-5.6%	9.0%	56.4%
HK HIS	2.1%	22.9%	-20.0%	5.3%	104.9%
CN SHI	-5.0%	3.1%	-21.7%	-14.3%	96.8%
Bilibala	4.5%	23.1%	-7.6%	6.4%	115.2%

Bilibala's +4.5% performance was driven by +9.8% unrelaized gains in US/CA corporations (mainly Google Inc, Manulife Financial, Tiffany + co and Wells Fargo), +3% exact gains as invest during global equity market fall in 3Q. It is partially offset by -4.4% losses in Barrick Gold and Apple Inc in Q1, due to Bilibala's miss judgement & slow awareness to re-estimation (partly due to stress @ workplace in Q1), and -3.9% reduction in unrealized gains in Asia Corporations (mainly China Life and China Construction Bank).

Bilibala re-adjusted his target to make 8-10% return in 2013, lower than 10 years' average return of 17.7% due to the loss in Apple Inc & Barrick Gold mentioned, and the huge ytd change in unrealized loss in China Life.

Assets Mix (as of Sep 30, 2013)

By region

• US 43%
• Emerging 34%
• Canada 17%
• Europe Market 6%

By Industry

• Insurance 19%
• Banking 14%
• IT 13%
• Telecom 12%
• Consumer 9%
• Energy 7%
• Food 7%

Top Holding (over 70% concentration, as of Sep 30, 2013)

1. Google Inc (GOOG) since 09 btw US$287 - 601

Google Inc. (Google) is a global technology company focused on improving the ways people connect with information. The Company generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. As of December 31, 2011, the Company's business was focused on areas, such as search, advertising, operating systems and platforms, and enterprise. Businesses use its AdWords program to promote their products and services with targeted advertising. In addition, the third parties that comprise the Google Network use its AdSense program to deliver relevant advertisements that generate revenue.  

2. China Mobile (CHL) since 05 btw HK$36 - 76

China Mobile Limited is a telecommunication company which provides mobile telecommunications and related services in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and directly-administered municipalities in Mainland China and Hong Kong. As of December 31, 2012, its total customer reached 710 million. The largest in the world.

3. China Life (LFC) since 03 btw HK$3.6 - 22.5

China Life Insurance Company Limited is a China-based life insurance company. The Company through its subsidiaries is engaged in writing of life insurance business, providing life, annuities, accident and health insurance products in China. It has a dominant market shares of above 40% in China's life insurance in force policies.

4. Manulife Financial (MFC) since 09 btw CA$9.7 - 19.5

Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) is a Canada-based financial services group with principal operations in Asia, Canada and the United States. The Company's segments are Asia, Canadian and U.S. Divisions and the Corporate and Other segment. The Company's international network agents and distribution partners offers financial protection and wealth management products and services to clients. It also provides asset management services to institutional customers.

5. Tiffany + Co (TIF) since 10 btw US$46 - 55

Tiffany + Co. is a holding company that operates through its subsidiary companies. The Company's principal subsidiary, Tiffany and Company (Tiffany), is a jeweler and specialty retailer whose principal merchandise offering is jewelry. Its the 2nd largest Jewelry company in the world.

6. Wells Fargo (WFC) since 08 btw US$12.5 - 25

Wells Fargo +Company is a bank holding company. The Company is a diversified financial services company. It has three operating segments: Community Banking, Wholesale Banking and Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement. It is also the largest investment in Warren Buffet's Burkshire Hathaway stock portfolio which he bought & hold and still keeps buying for over 20 years.  

7. China Construction Bank (0939) since 05 btw HK$2.4 - 5.35

China Construction Bank Corporation is a commercial bank. The principal activities of the Group are the provision of corporate and personal banking services, conducting treasury business, the provision of asset management, trustee, finance leasing, investment banking, insurance and other financial services. The bank has approximately 13,629 domestic branches, it is the second largest bank in China by market capitalization. 

8. General Electric (GE) since 08 btw US$9.5 - 22.3

General Electric Company (GE) is a diversified technology and financial services company. The products and services of the Company range from aircraft engines, power generation, water processing, and household appliances to medical imaging, business and consumer financing and industrial products.

9. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) since 09 US$29 - 45
The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The Company operates in five business segments: Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer Products and Interactive.

10. Starbucks Corporation (SBUK) since 10 btw US$31 - 46.5

Starbucks Corporation is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee operating in 60 countries. The Company purchases and roasts coffees that it sells, along with handcrafted coffee, tea and other beverages and a variety of fresh food items, through Company-operated stores. As of September 30, 2012, it operated 9,405 Company-operated stores and 8,661 licensed stores.

11. Suncor Energy (SU) since 11 btw CA$29 - 33.5

Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor) is an integrated energy company. The Company is focused on developing petroleum resource basins-Canada's Athabasca oil sands. In addition, the Company explore for, acquire, develop, produce and market crude oil and natural gas in Canada and internationally, and the Company transports and refines crude oil, and market petroleum and petrochemical products primarily in Canada. The Company operates under three segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing.  

12. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) since 11 btw US$63 - 68

Royal Dutch Shell plc (Shell) is an independent oil and gas company. The Company owns, directly or indirectly, investments in the numerous companies constituting Shell. Shell is engaged worldwide in the principal aspects of the oil and gas industry and also has interests in chemicals and other energy-related businesses.

13. Deckor Outdoor (DECK) since 12 btw US$35 - $38
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs footwear developed for both high performance outdoor activities and everyday casual lifestyle use. The Company markets its products under three brands: UGG, Teva, and Sanuk.

 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!

坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?
bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去10年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.7%, 累積回報 410%. 經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.
儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.

Bilibala devotion 13/10/14 忍到主來忍者2000年 雅各書 c5b

回應第四章首和尾

忍的總結
1. 忍者與農夫 (out of control)
2. 忍者互插之不該 (control what not to do)
3. 約伯堅持到得獎 (faith control)