小重溫
為什犯眾憎
水變血針對誰, 什么後果
天不下雨針對誰, 什么後果
誰比啞車落三死更可憎
忠言逆耳仍可以....見証?
為什犯眾憎
水變血針對誰, 什么後果
天不下雨針對誰, 什么後果
誰比啞車落三死更可憎
忠言逆耳仍可以....見証?
Friday, November 29, 2013
Bilibala finance updates 2013 M11 performance
Bilibala Finance 投資財金, 勝負難分, 分析技藝, 受用一生
Bilibala finance 除了帶你進入財金世界, 分析大市走勢, 企業財務報告, 估值評估. 也帶你穿梭 billy ++bilibala 的分析過程, 他的交易, 持有, 甚至挫敗經驗. 借此反照一個投資者如何跌進, 如何打破那 70% 人失敗的宿命. 作為一個基督徒投資者在一個變幻莫測的金融領域學習作神有所為有所不為的忠信管家.
仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.
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Bilibala's November preformance:
|
| 2013M11 | 2013M10 | 2012 | 2011 | 5 YR | 10 YR | ITD | CUM |
| US S&P | 26.6% | 23.2% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 22.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 205% |
| CA TSX | 7.7% | 7.6% | 4.0% | -11.1% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 203% |
| UK FTSE | 12.8% | 14.1% | 5.8% | -5.6% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 169% |
| HK HIS | 5.4% | 2.4% | 22.9% | -20.0% | 17.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 256% |
| CN SHI | -2.1% | -5.6% | 3.1% | -21.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 164% |
| Brenchmark | 14.5% | 11.3% | 11.8% | -10.4% | 16.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 271% |
| Bilibala | 17.6% | 9.9% | 23.1% | -7.6% | 25.1% | 17.4% | 17.3% | 580% |
* Benchmark calculated basd on regional index performance, weighted averaged by Bilibala's yearly regional asset mix (assumed netural impact on FX rate).
Month 11
China Life (2628/LFC)'s stock price recovered by 25%, further rise in Goolge Inc (GOOG), Tiffany + Co (TIF) due to better 2014 forecast, helps Bilibala return jumped by 7.7% to 17.6%. Latest 2013 re-forecast return will be between 17% to 19%.
Since US market hit its record high, even it was justified by good economic data, I planned to reduce 100% Apple Inc (AAPL), 100% Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) and 20% Deckor Outdoor (DECK) in December.
2013 YTD
2013 M11 YTD performed better than benchmark and Bilibala's average return. However, it was worse than S+P 500's 26.6% primarily due to the following:
- (2.6%) related to bad decision lead to a 35% losses in Barrick Gold (ABX) in 1st half of the year, dropping of gold price trigger a free fall of the gold stock, instead of retreat, invest further and enlarge the losses which can be avoided.
- (2.0%) related to bad analysis lead to a13% losses in Apple Inc (AAPL) in Q2, I estimated Q1 earnings and its values correctly, but investment time inconsistent with the market.
- (1.0%) due to unrealized FX losses on CAD$
This is a pricy lesson, without the 1st and the 2nd mistakes.
Assets Mix (as of Nov 30, 2013)
By region
- US 45%
- Emerging 35%
- Canada 13%
- Europe Market 7%
By Industry
- Insurance 19%
- IT 16%
- Banking 13%
- Telecom 10%
- Consumer 9%
- Food 9%
- Energy 6%
Top Holding (over 70% concentration, as of Nov 30, 2013)
1. China Life (LFC) since 03 btw HK$3.6 - 22.5
China Life Insurance Company Limited is a China-based life insurance company. The Company through its subsidiaries is engaged in writing of life insurance business, providing life, annuities, accident and health insurance products in China. It has a dominant market shares of above 40% in China's life insurance in force policies.
2. Google Inc (GOOG) since 09 btw US$287 - 601
Google Inc. (Google) is a global technology company focused on improving the ways people connect with information. The Company generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. As of December 31, 2011, the Company's business was focused on areas, such as search, advertising, operating systems and platforms, and enterprise. Businesses use its AdWords program to promote their products and services with targeted advertising. In addition, the third parties that comprise the Google Network use its AdSense program to deliver relevant advertisements that generate revenue.
3. China Mobile (CHL) since 05 btw HK$36 - 76
China Mobile Limited is a telecommunication company which provides mobile telecommunications and related services in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and directly-administered municipalities in Mainland China and Hong Kong. As of December 31, 2012, its total customer reached 710 million. The largest in the world.
4. Manulife Financial (MFC) since 09 btw CA$9.7 - 19.5
Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) is a Canada-based financial services group with principal operations in Asia, Canada and the United States. The Company's segments are Asia, Canadian and U.S. Divisions and the Corporate and Other segment. The Company's international network agents and distribution partners offers financial protection and wealth management products and services to clients. It also provides asset management services to institutional customers.
5. Tiffany + Co (TIF) since 10 btw US$46 - 55
Tiffany + Co. is a holding company that operates through its subsidiary companies. The Company's principal subsidiary, Tiffany and Company (Tiffany), is a jeweler and specialty retailer whose principal merchandise offering is jewelry. Its the 2nd largest Jewelry company in the world.
6. Wells Fargo (WFC) since 08 btw US$12.5 - 25
Wells Fargo +Company is a bank holding company. The Company is a diversified financial services company. It has three operating segments: Community Banking, Wholesale Banking and Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement. It is also the largest investment in Warren Buffet's Burkshire Hathaway stock portfolio which he bought & hold and still keeps buying for over 20 years.
7. China Construction Bank (0939) since 05 btw HK$2.4 - 5.35
China Construction Bank Corporation is a commercial bank. The principal activities of the Group are the provision of corporate and personal banking services, conducting treasury business, the provision of asset management, trustee, finance leasing, investment banking, insurance and other financial services. The bank has approximately 13,629 domestic branches, it is the second largest bank in China by market capitalization.
8. Starbucks Corporation (SBUK) since 10 btw US$31 - 46.5
Starbucks Corporation is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee operating in 60 countries. The Company purchases and roasts coffees that it sells, along with handcrafted coffee, tea and other beverages and a variety of fresh food items, through Company-operated stores. As of September 30, 2012, it operated 9,405 Company-operated stores and 8,661 licensed stores.
9. General Electric (GE) since 08 btw US$9.5 - 22.3
General Electric Company (GE) is a diversified technology and financial services company. The products and services of the Company range from aircraft engines, power generation, water processing, and household appliances to medical imaging, business and consumer financing and industrial products.
10. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) since 09 US$29 - 45
The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The Company operates in five business segments: Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer Products and Interactive.
11. Deckor Outdoor (DECK) since 12 btw US$35 - $38
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs footwear developed for both high performance outdoor activities and everyday casual lifestyle use. The Company markets its products under three brands: UGG, Teva, and Sanuk.
12. Suncor Energy (SU) since 11 btw CA$29 - 33.5
Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor) is an integrated energy company. The Company is focused on developing petroleum resource basins-Canada's Athabasca oil sands. In addition, the Company explore for, acquire, develop, produce and market crude oil and natural gas in Canada and internationally, and the Company transports and refines crude oil, and market petroleum and petrochemical products primarily in Canada. The Company operates under three segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing.
13. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) since 11 btw US$63 - 68
Royal Dutch Shell plc (Shell) is an independent oil and gas company. The Company owns, directly or indirectly, investments in the numerous companies constituting Shell. Shell is engaged worldwide in the principal aspects of the oil and gas industry and also has interests in chemicals and other energy-related businesses.
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過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!
坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?
bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去10年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.7%, 累積回報 410%. 經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.
儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
職場挑戰之即場回望
身邊不少朋友回流返港, 有的為了和家人團聚, 有的為了男女朋友, 也有的為了事業, 覺得在香港會多一些機會, 發展, 還有一些朋友認為人生需要些挑戰, 加拿大太休閒, 太平淡, 要趁年青闖一闖, 歷練歷練一番.
我一直留在加拿大.
真空上陣
08 金融風暴, 令我那間本來已冇錢賺的公司雪上加霜, 會計部一個個高層被抄被換.....結果, 我成為唯一懂分析和完成整個財務報告的死淨種, 直接向 CFO 匯報, 也要負擔起 train 新管理層讀懂報告的責任. 那混亂不安的兩年, 成了一個極佳的學習成長機會.
水深(火熱)之處
2011年, 揾工跳槽. 適逢宏利精算部聘會計人. 精算除了個大概, 我不懂, 但我抱住人家敢找我我敢去見工, 人家敢請我就敢做的心態, 照樣應徵, 並得到錄用.
所謂食得咸魚就要學抵得渴. 對於我這個善長宏觀分析的人, 在精算部那細緻到一張保單也要研究到底的工作, 是件事倍功半的差事. 周六日, 連在 ttc, viva都開工也似做不完的工作. 我不求萬事通, 人家十年寒窗才當上精算師, 我只求做好要求, 盡力做到準時完成報告及分析.
透過這份工, 對精算師的想法和分析有更深的理解和體會, 更重要是, 它令我正視和改善了我一直掉以輕心, 一於少理的 organization skills, delegation skills.
在宏利一年半, 公司轉虧為盈, 卻要大裁員. 在這大地震過程中, 要將我那部門搬去 boston (失業/被調職)之前一個月, 成功跳船(感謝主).
自我接手到離去, 幾乎所有報告減少了 90% 誤差率, 平均提早了五六個工作天出貨. 當然, 這是整個部門的功勞, 我是其中一份子.
無重狀態
來到新蘇格蘭銀行, 重新返到 finance + financial reporting 這領域. 一來銀行的保險較簡潔, 二來所有 book keeping + notes 都由海外分行自行整理, 少了一大堆 admin works, 三來, 在宏利學會的精算和改善了的 skill sets....令工作事半功倍.
和宏利時對比, 簡直是一個天一個地, 由水深之處的重壓一下子升到太空無重狀態.
能專心去做我(自覺)最強的分析: 問對問題, 找對的人, 找對的答案, 並不斷優化其健全分析.
高處未算高
你可能會問, 若然什么都得心應手, 那又有什么進步空間可言? 正如我們在教會常覺得起初事奉驚驚青青人就容易謙卑, 久而久之做到駕輕就熟就容易靠自己不靠神云云.
我認為自我感覺良好不一定代表好, 更不代表從此封殺了許多進步空間. 剛好相反, 你能完全掌握和駕御一事, 才有本事進一步將它優化和完善, 這才稱得上專業, 又或者換個較屬靈的詞, 叫"召命".
我的岡位, 懂得及精通分析是理所當然, 但我對公司的歷史, 產品, 系統以致人脈的熟悉仍是個初哥. 此外, 透過 business writing, presentation 去令高層更易明白我所分析到的論述又是另一個可發展的空間.
沒有最卓越, 因為仍可以更卓越(認識神和事奉其道理都一樣). 我覺得這種態度才對得住自己, 對得住對我有期望的人和珍惜我的神.
此外, 由於負責 look after 拉丁美洲業務, 要用西班牙語, 這將是我未來兩三年的學習目摽.
Mission i m possible
上次同神講數, 宏利是一次有限期的 retreat, 學會了要學的, 合格, 神就容許我跳船.
今次簽賣身契時, 同神傾惦數, 我要做好這些事和聽到講到西班牙(屎雞冇所謂)才算 mission completed 可以取得通行証繼續. 所以要全力以負! 雖然我好懶, 又是個外語白痴. 但唔試過又點知? 當我去西班牙旅行不用說英文, 用西班牙文對槁讀 presentation, 就算成功第一步! 走著瞧, 睇下點死 :p
我正在想法子如何推動自己和保守自己努力和繼續努力, 歡迎留言俾 suggestion.
物競天擇
最後想再談談回流返港是否比留在加拿大更能歷練一個人的成長.
發表進化論的達爾文曾發現天堂鳥因要適應不同島嶼的生態而發展出不同的品種.
在印度亦有科學家發現同一螃蟹活在水深之處長成巨蟹(不是星座), 活在淺水就長成小小蟹.
一方水土養一方人, 有它的道理, 我是相信的. 問題是, 我希望被神雕塑成怎樣的人? 又或者, 我了解我要精益求精的召命是什么嗎?
香港可以訓練出精明能幹, 好捱得好打得好周身刀的能人. 至於科研, 藝術, 創造性, 環保意識, 公民教育不知為何及不上橫睇惦睇都懶洋洋的歐洲佬, 勇悍不及北望的神洲, 做小生意不及 cheap 完可以更 cheap, 又夠團結的印度人......
我感謝神, 作為加拿大的香港仔, 過去神透過不同工作令我成長再成長, 我相信今後神的帶領都不會令每個在不同環境跟從他的人失望.
而我.....亦不想令神失望!
啊們!
我一直留在加拿大.
真空上陣
08 金融風暴, 令我那間本來已冇錢賺的公司雪上加霜, 會計部一個個高層被抄被換.....結果, 我成為唯一懂分析和完成整個財務報告的死淨種, 直接向 CFO 匯報, 也要負擔起 train 新管理層讀懂報告的責任. 那混亂不安的兩年, 成了一個極佳的學習成長機會.
水深(火熱)之處
2011年, 揾工跳槽. 適逢宏利精算部聘會計人. 精算除了個大概, 我不懂, 但我抱住人家敢找我我敢去見工, 人家敢請我就敢做的心態, 照樣應徵, 並得到錄用.
所謂食得咸魚就要學抵得渴. 對於我這個善長宏觀分析的人, 在精算部那細緻到一張保單也要研究到底的工作, 是件事倍功半的差事. 周六日, 連在 ttc, viva都開工也似做不完的工作. 我不求萬事通, 人家十年寒窗才當上精算師, 我只求做好要求, 盡力做到準時完成報告及分析.
透過這份工, 對精算師的想法和分析有更深的理解和體會, 更重要是, 它令我正視和改善了我一直掉以輕心, 一於少理的 organization skills, delegation skills.
在宏利一年半, 公司轉虧為盈, 卻要大裁員. 在這大地震過程中, 要將我那部門搬去 boston (失業/被調職)之前一個月, 成功跳船(感謝主).
自我接手到離去, 幾乎所有報告減少了 90% 誤差率, 平均提早了五六個工作天出貨. 當然, 這是整個部門的功勞, 我是其中一份子.
無重狀態
來到新蘇格蘭銀行, 重新返到 finance + financial reporting 這領域. 一來銀行的保險較簡潔, 二來所有 book keeping + notes 都由海外分行自行整理, 少了一大堆 admin works, 三來, 在宏利學會的精算和改善了的 skill sets....令工作事半功倍.
和宏利時對比, 簡直是一個天一個地, 由水深之處的重壓一下子升到太空無重狀態.
能專心去做我(自覺)最強的分析: 問對問題, 找對的人, 找對的答案, 並不斷優化其健全分析.
高處未算高
你可能會問, 若然什么都得心應手, 那又有什么進步空間可言? 正如我們在教會常覺得起初事奉驚驚青青人就容易謙卑, 久而久之做到駕輕就熟就容易靠自己不靠神云云.
我認為自我感覺良好不一定代表好, 更不代表從此封殺了許多進步空間. 剛好相反, 你能完全掌握和駕御一事, 才有本事進一步將它優化和完善, 這才稱得上專業, 又或者換個較屬靈的詞, 叫"召命".
我的岡位, 懂得及精通分析是理所當然, 但我對公司的歷史, 產品, 系統以致人脈的熟悉仍是個初哥. 此外, 透過 business writing, presentation 去令高層更易明白我所分析到的論述又是另一個可發展的空間.
沒有最卓越, 因為仍可以更卓越(認識神和事奉其道理都一樣). 我覺得這種態度才對得住自己, 對得住對我有期望的人和珍惜我的神.
此外, 由於負責 look after 拉丁美洲業務, 要用西班牙語, 這將是我未來兩三年的學習目摽.
Mission i m possible
上次同神講數, 宏利是一次有限期的 retreat, 學會了要學的, 合格, 神就容許我跳船.
今次簽賣身契時, 同神傾惦數, 我要做好這些事和聽到講到西班牙(屎雞冇所謂)才算 mission completed 可以取得通行証繼續. 所以要全力以負! 雖然我好懶, 又是個外語白痴. 但唔試過又點知? 當我去西班牙旅行不用說英文, 用西班牙文對槁讀 presentation, 就算成功第一步! 走著瞧, 睇下點死 :p
我正在想法子如何推動自己和保守自己努力和繼續努力, 歡迎留言俾 suggestion.
物競天擇
最後想再談談回流返港是否比留在加拿大更能歷練一個人的成長.
發表進化論的達爾文曾發現天堂鳥因要適應不同島嶼的生態而發展出不同的品種.
在印度亦有科學家發現同一螃蟹活在水深之處長成巨蟹(不是星座), 活在淺水就長成小小蟹.
一方水土養一方人, 有它的道理, 我是相信的. 問題是, 我希望被神雕塑成怎樣的人? 又或者, 我了解我要精益求精的召命是什么嗎?
香港可以訓練出精明能幹, 好捱得好打得好周身刀的能人. 至於科研, 藝術, 創造性, 環保意識, 公民教育不知為何及不上橫睇惦睇都懶洋洋的歐洲佬, 勇悍不及北望的神洲, 做小生意不及 cheap 完可以更 cheap, 又夠團結的印度人......
我感謝神, 作為加拿大的香港仔, 過去神透過不同工作令我成長再成長, 我相信今後神的帶領都不會令每個在不同環境跟從他的人失望.
而我.....亦不想令神失望!
啊們!
Monday, November 25, 2013
Bilibala finance updates 13/11/25
Bilibala Finance 投資財金, 勝負難分, 分析技藝, 受用一生
Bilibala finance 除了帶你進入財金世界, 分析大市走勢, 企業財務報告, 估值評估. 也帶你穿梭 billy ++bilibala 的分析過程, 他的交易, 持有, 甚至挫敗經驗. 借此反照一個投資者如何跌進, 如何打破那 70% 人失敗的宿命. 作為一個基督徒投資者在一個變幻莫測的金融領域學習作神有所為有所不為的忠信管家.
仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.
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Transactions (11/25/13):
- Sold 100% Hong Kong Gas (0003) at HK$18.2 in no gains except dividend received for the past half year, switched and added 4% China Mobile (0941/CHL) at HK$80.9.
- Pan to sell 100% Apple (AAPL) if it reach US$550, reduce11% China Life at US$48, reduce 33% IBM at US$190, reduce 20% Deckor Outdoor (DECK) at around US$78-79, add 9% China Mobile (0941/CHL) at around US$52.5.
With the advance in China equity market especially China Life (which became Bilibala's top #1 holding in November), Bilibala's return rised to 15%, therefore, I will increase 2013 return forecast from 10-13% to 15-17%.
Bilibala's October preformance:
Thanks to Google Inc (GOOG), Deckor Ourdoor (DECK), Starbucks Corp (SBUX) and Apple Inc (AAPL)'s share price advance, return increased siginficantly from 4.5% to 9.6% in October. I will increase the 2013 forecast return from 8%-10% to 10-13%.
2013 M10 YTD results still lower than global benchmark, and lower than Bilibala's past performance, primarily due to the following:
- (2.8%) related to 15% unrealized gains reduction in China Life (LFC) through out the year
- (2.6%) related to bad decision lead to a 35% losses in Barrick Gold (ABX) in 1st half of the year, dropping of gold price trigger a free fall of the gold stock, instead of retreat, invest further and enlarge the losses which can be avoided.
- (2.0%) related to bad analysis lead to a13% losses in Apple Inc (AAPL) in Q2, I estimated Q1 earnings and its values correctly, but investment time inconsistent with the market.
This is a pricy lesson, without the 2nd and the 3rd mistakes, Bilibala's return should have been 14.4 with a potential to meet my past performance by the end of the year.
| 2013/10 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | |
| US S&P | 23.2% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 67.2% |
| CA TSX | 7.6% | 4.0% | -11.1% | 14.4% | 57.0% |
| UK FTSE | 14.1% | 5.8% | -5.6% | 9.0% | 56.4% |
| HK HIS | 2.4% | 22.9% | -20.0% | 5.3% | 104.9% |
| CN SHI | -5.6% | 3.1% | -21.7% | -14.3% | 96.8% |
| GlobalBenchmark | 11.3% | 11.8% | -10.4% | 4.2% | 81.5% |
| Bilibala | 9.6% | 23.1% | -7.6% | 6.4% | 115.2% |
* Global Benchmark calculated basd on regional index performance, weighted averaged by Bilibala's yearly regional asset mix.
Assets Mix (as of Oct 31, 2013)
By region
- US 44%
- Emerging 36%
- Canada 13%
- Europe Market 7%
By Industry
- Insurance 19%
- IT 14%
- Banking 13%
- Telecom 11%
- Consumer 9%
- Food 7%
- Energy 7%
Top Holding (over 70% concentration, as of Oct 31, 2013)
1. Google Inc (GOOG) since 09 btw US$287 - 601
Google Inc. (Google) is a global technology company focused on improving the ways people connect with information. The Company generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. As of December 31, 2011, the Company's business was focused on areas, such as search, advertising, operating systems and platforms, and enterprise. Businesses use its AdWords program to promote their products and services with targeted advertising. In addition, the third parties that comprise the Google Network use its AdSense program to deliver relevant advertisements that generate revenue.
2. China Mobile (CHL) since 05 btw HK$36 - 76
China Mobile Limited is a telecommunication company which provides mobile telecommunications and related services in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and directly-administered municipalities in Mainland China and Hong Kong. As of December 31, 2012, its total customer reached 710 million. The largest in the world.
3. China Life (LFC) since 03 btw HK$3.6 - 22.5
China Life Insurance Company Limited is a China-based life insurance company. The Company through its subsidiaries is engaged in writing of life insurance business, providing life, annuities, accident and health insurance products in China. It has a dominant market shares of above 40% in China's life insurance in force policies.
4. Manulife Financial (MFC) since 09 btw CA$9.7 - 19.5
Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) is a Canada-based financial services group with principal operations in Asia, Canada and the United States. The Company's segments are Asia, Canadian and U.S. Divisions and the Corporate and Other segment. The Company's international network agents and distribution partners offers financial protection and wealth management products and services to clients. It also provides asset management services to institutional customers.
5. Tiffany + Co (TIF) since 10 btw US$46 - 55
Tiffany + Co. is a holding company that operates through its subsidiary companies. The Company's principal subsidiary, Tiffany and Company (Tiffany), is a jeweler and specialty retailer whose principal merchandise offering is jewelry. Its the 2nd largest Jewelry company in the world.
6. Wells Fargo (WFC) since 08 btw US$12.5 - 25
Wells Fargo +Company is a bank holding company. The Company is a diversified financial services company. It has three operating segments: Community Banking, Wholesale Banking and Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement. It is also the largest investment in Warren Buffet's Burkshire Hathaway stock portfolio which he bought & hold and still keeps buying for over 20 years.
7. China Construction Bank (0939) since 05 btw HK$2.4 - 5.35
China Construction Bank Corporation is a commercial bank. The principal activities of the Group are the provision of corporate and personal banking services, conducting treasury business, the provision of asset management, trustee, finance leasing, investment banking, insurance and other financial services. The bank has approximately 13,629 domestic branches, it is the second largest bank in China by market capitalization.
8. Starbucks Corporation (SBUK) since 10 btw US$31 - 46.5
Starbucks Corporation is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee operating in 60 countries. The Company purchases and roasts coffees that it sells, along with handcrafted coffee, tea and other beverages and a variety of fresh food items, through Company-operated stores. As of September 30, 2012, it operated 9,405 Company-operated stores and 8,661 licensed stores.
9. General Electric (GE) since 08 btw US$9.5 - 22.3
General Electric Company (GE) is a diversified technology and financial services company. The products and services of the Company range from aircraft engines, power generation, water processing, and household appliances to medical imaging, business and consumer financing and industrial products.
10. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) since 09 US$29 - 45
The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The Company operates in five business segments: Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer Products and Interactive.
11. Deckor Outdoor (DECK) since 12 btw US$35 - $38
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs footwear developed for both high performance outdoor activities and everyday casual lifestyle use. The Company markets its products under three brands: UGG, Teva, and Sanuk.
12. Suncor Energy (SU) since 11 btw CA$29 - 33.5
Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor) is an integrated energy company. The Company is focused on developing petroleum resource basins-Canada's Athabasca oil sands. In addition, the Company explore for, acquire, develop, produce and market crude oil and natural gas in Canada and internationally, and the Company transports and refines crude oil, and market petroleum and petrochemical products primarily in Canada. The Company operates under three segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing.
13. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) since 11 btw US$63 - 68
Royal Dutch Shell plc (Shell) is an independent oil and gas company. The Company owns, directly or indirectly, investments in the numerous companies constituting Shell. Shell is engaged worldwide in the principal aspects of the oil and gas industry and also has interests in chemicals and other energy-related businesses.
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過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!
坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?
bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去10年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.7%, 累積回報 410%. 經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.
儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Friday, November 22, 2013
北灣的橄欖樹
不要問我從哪裡來
我的故鄉在遠方
為什麼流浪 為什麼流浪 遠方
為了我 夢中的橄欖樹
有人話"橄欖樹"這首老歌的歌詞是講述猶太人的故事.
橄欖是以色列地古往今束支撐經濟以致日常生活的當地特產. 它堅忍的性格, 能在任何環境, 任何天氣下茁壯成長, 故此猶太人喜歡用它來代表其民族性的象徵.
以色列國約在公元前十一世紀立國, 其後分列. 北國在公元前八世紀被亞述帝國所滅, 比它弱少的南國則在公元前六世紀被巴比倫帝國滅亡.
一個小小的民族, 在列強環繞下居然存活了五百多年, 實在不容易, 更奇妙是經過二千多年歲月, 流浪流浪遠方, 仍保留著他們的信仰,
他們的民族性, 而且在1947年重新復國.
如果話橄欖樹這首歌是要寫出猶太人在異邦飄流寄居, 追念錫安(首都耶路撒冷的別稱), 夢想有朝一日可以復國, 或者你亦會覺得可信.
實情是: 這是作家三毛筆下的歌詞. 追憶她流浪到西班牙, 當地繁茂美麗的橄欖樹, 以及騎著小毛驢遊歷四方那幅圖畫.
11月16日, 今年最後一次上北灣. 跟學生們分享了一個有關橄欖和聖經的記錄片. 學生們來加拿大留學, 不知道有沒有一點"橄欖樹"的孤單飄零的感慨. 歌詞話, "不要問我從那裡來".
也許對學生而言, "我往那裡去"恐怕更加難找到答案. 每周要應付如斯多功課測驗, 能順利畢業與否, 是努力付出之後仍會令人疑慮的未知素.
畢業後何去何從? 能否成為一個厲害的人? 令這個世界因為有了我, 有一點點不一樣?
或者, 盡力做好今天最實際.
在之後的一星期, 學生們有兩至四科考試, 仍然選擇出席我們的活動令我感到欣慰. 特別這次活動是 operation christmas child!
中午一齊去商場, 買禮物, 回教會, 食過晚飯, 一齊包禮物給在遠方, 生活在貧窮中的小朋友. 一盒小小禮物, 盛著我們小小的心意, 好叫那些小朋友和我們一樣, 一齊渡過一快樂聖誕.
學生們花錢花心思, 更重要是花了寶貴的溫習/
在安排今年度的節目時, 我想, 既然主耶穌愛我們, 又祝福我們令我們溫飽, 有書讀, 有父母愛鍚, 我們要學會感恩的同時, 也必需學去分享, 學去將這些祝福分贈給別人. (註一). 起初, 我們也怕學生們不知道 shoe box 作什么, 又怕一個以"關愛"為主題的節目會吃力不討好, 事實証明我們的小信, 以及學生們對慈惠的湧躍參與和善心.
我們雖是微不足道的小人物, 生活的煎磨似乎把我們壓得換不過氣來. 可曾發現生命有如一小橄欖, 擠出滴滴清油, 滋潤一方水土的人.
這提醒我要肯定自己和別人的能力, 勇住直前, 好好珍惜所擁有的, 讓生命擠出一點豐盛, 和世間分享.
我們總共包了十個鞋盒禮物. 衷心盼望這次活動成為我們分享愛的動力, 延續而且擴張下去, 對遠處的人, 也關心近在咫尺的親朋和鄰居....
註一
唯有互信, 肯和人分享多一點愛, 我們在這地才可活得長久
不管是在加拿大或中國也一樣.
假如我們只知物競天擇, 孟子話, 這和畜牲有什么分別呢?
我相信主耶穌, 我不相信中國人比別的民族更醜陋, 在我認識的朋友學生身上, 除了極少極少數之外, 心底都流露著善美與真. 只是歷史傷害得太深, 粉碎我們對純真和傳統的禮教, 令社會失了互信, 令我們變作驚弓之鳥, 自顧得保護自己, 不惜一切的往上爬, 去填補心中的恐懼.
我的故鄉在遠方
為什麼流浪 為什麼流浪 遠方
為了我 夢中的橄欖樹
有人話"橄欖樹"這首老歌的歌詞是講述猶太人的故事.
橄欖是以色列地古往今束支撐經濟以致日常生活的當地特產. 它堅忍的性格, 能在任何環境, 任何天氣下茁壯成長, 故此猶太人喜歡用它來代表其民族性的象徵.
如果話橄欖樹這首歌是要寫出猶太人在異邦飄流寄居, 追念錫安(首都耶路撒冷的別稱), 夢想有朝一日可以復國, 或者你亦會覺得可信.
實情是: 這是作家三毛筆下的歌詞. 追憶她流浪到西班牙, 當地繁茂美麗的橄欖樹, 以及騎著小毛驢遊歷四方那幅圖畫.
11月16日, 今年最後一次上北灣. 跟學生們分享了一個有關橄欖和聖經的記錄片. 學生們來加拿大留學, 不知道有沒有一點"橄欖樹"的孤單飄零的感慨. 歌詞話, "不要問我從那裡來".
也許對學生而言, "我往那裡去"恐怕更加難找到答案. 每周要應付如斯多功課測驗, 能順利畢業與否, 是努力付出之後仍會令人疑慮的未知素.
畢業後何去何從? 能否成為一個厲害的人? 令這個世界因為有了我, 有一點點不一樣?
或者, 盡力做好今天最實際.
在之後的一星期, 學生們有兩至四科考試, 仍然選擇出席我們的活動令我感到欣慰. 特別這次活動是 operation christmas child!
中午一齊去商場, 買禮物, 回教會, 食過晚飯, 一齊包禮物給在遠方, 生活在貧窮中的小朋友. 一盒小小禮物, 盛著我們小小的心意, 好叫那些小朋友和我們一樣, 一齊渡過一快樂聖誕.
學生們花錢花心思, 更重要是花了寶貴的溫習/
在安排今年度的節目時, 我想, 既然主耶穌愛我們, 又祝福我們令我們溫飽, 有書讀, 有父母愛鍚, 我們要學會感恩的同時, 也必需學去分享, 學去將這些祝福分贈給別人. (註一). 起初, 我們也怕學生們不知道 shoe box 作什么, 又怕一個以"關愛"為主題的節目會吃力不討好, 事實証明我們的小信, 以及學生們對慈惠的湧躍參與和善心.
我們雖是微不足道的小人物, 生活的煎磨似乎把我們壓得換不過氣來. 可曾發現生命有如一小橄欖, 擠出滴滴清油, 滋潤一方水土的人.
這提醒我要肯定自己和別人的能力, 勇住直前, 好好珍惜所擁有的, 讓生命擠出一點豐盛, 和世間分享.
我們總共包了十個鞋盒禮物. 衷心盼望這次活動成為我們分享愛的動力, 延續而且擴張下去, 對遠處的人, 也關心近在咫尺的親朋和鄰居....
唯有互信, 肯和人分享多一點愛, 我們在這地才可活得長久
不管是在加拿大或中國也一樣.
假如我們只知物競天擇, 孟子話, 這和畜牲有什么分別呢?
我相信主耶穌, 我不相信中國人比別的民族更醜陋, 在我認識的朋友學生身上, 除了極少極少數之外, 心底都流露著善美與真. 只是歷史傷害得太深, 粉碎我們對純真和傳統的禮教, 令社會失了互信, 令我們變作驚弓之鳥, 自顧得保護自己, 不惜一切的往上爬, 去填補心中的恐懼.
Bilibala devotion 13/11/22 死性不改 啟示錄 c9 add
約珥書淺解
新約應用意義
啟示錄 c9 上下文
Application (3 揀 2 方案):
- 死性不改
- 悔改 => 睇人點死?
- 悔改 => 傳悔改之道, 那怕人死性不改
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Bilibala devotion 13/11/21 蝗蟲天下 啟示錄 c9
沒有錄音的一天
第8章補充: 頭四號的另一理解
第五號: 蝗蟲
悔改新釋和再思
反思: 衰人確是可惡, 確要責備和受罰, 但神的蝗禍未來之先, 誰願勸"蝗蟲"悔改, 避過真正的蝗蟲呢?
第8章補充: 頭四號的另一理解
- 香港人眼中的蝗蟲
- 預言家口中的蝗蟲
- 聖經舊約中的蝗蟲
- 啟示錄蝗蟲的異同
悔改新釋和再思
反思: 衰人確是可惡, 確要責備和受罰, 但神的蝗禍未來之先, 誰願勸"蝗蟲"悔改, 避過真正的蝗蟲呢?
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Bilibala finance 13/11/20 Comments & Analysis of China Life 13q3 results
Fact
· Earned premiums increased $13B or 5% to $274B from 9M 2012, ok but not impressive.
· Incurred losses increased $17B or 7% to $258B, slightly higher than earned premium increase.
· Surrenders increased $21B or 68% to $50B with surrender rate of 3%, slightly higher than earned premium increase, primarily due to product sold through bancassurance channel. This is not a good sight. Management should take action & stop developing such trends.
· OCI decreased $8B or 30% to $19B, since equity market recovered in Q4, I will expect OCI to be flat by the end of 20113
· Investment income increased $24B or 24% to $72B, it was just realized gains, not a solid increase.
· Gross investment yield increased 218bps to 4.97%, fairly good return.
· Asset increased 3% to $1,960B from Dec 2012, fairly ok (with asset switch from AFS to HTM, I guess management try to smooth its future earnings).
· Equity increased 7% to $236B. Embedded value (as of Jun 30) is $363B or HK$16.3 per share, estimate EV as of Sep 30 should be $367B or HK$16.6, +9% higher than end of 2012.
Comments & Analysis
Insurance company relies on two sources of income: 1) underwriting (depends on pricing and premium persistence, most of the life insurance companies have negative earning); 2) investment return (for conservative purpose, insurance companies invest majority in bonds, heavily driven by the rise + fall of interest rate.
· Underwriting: start seeing 10% increase in value of new business as China Life switch its business towards non-participating products. Although such strategy hurt its earned premium growth, it still has over 35% market shares and in long run, it should make a higher earning.
· Investment: low interest rate and poor performance in equity market continue to hurt China Life's earnings.
Based on x1.5 forward embedded value, my target price of China Life will be US$50.6 or HK$26.1. However, since the stock price is higher volatile due to China equity market, my recommendation is a HOLD, instead of buy.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Bilibala devotion 13/11/19 萬千煙香普天同慶 啟示錄 c8
to watch or not to watch, tha'ts not the question
啟示心慌慌, 點解會慌?
第七印到七號
香的聯想
號的聯想
頭四號和頭四印之異同
to pray or not to pray, that's the question
啟示心慌慌, 點解會慌?
第七印到七號
香的聯想
號的聯想
頭四號和頭四印之異同
to pray or not to pray, that's the question
Bilibala Finance updates 13/11/19
Bilibala Finance 投資財金, 勝負難分, 分析技藝, 受用一生
Bilibala finance 除了帶你進入財金世界, 分析大市走勢, 企業財務報告, 估值評估. 也帶你穿梭 billy ++bilibala 的分析過程, 他的交易, 持有, 甚至挫敗經驗. 借此反照一個投資者如何跌進, 如何打破那 70% 人失敗的宿命. 作為一個基督徒投資者在一個變幻莫測的金融領域學習作神有所為有所不為的忠信管家.
仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.
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Transactions (11/19/13):
Mainly activities in Asia:
- Reduced 95% China Communcation Construction (1800) at HK$6.55, to realize 8% gains and go towards higher return lower risk's investment opportunities listed below
- Add back China Resource Enterprise (0291) at HK$26.9, buy back at a higher price, but its ok, because I made 16% in LFC & 8% in CCC, whereas if I kept CRE, I would only get 7%
- Add back China Resource Power (0836) at HK$19.2, sold & switched to CCC & LFC, and now switch back.
- Add back China Resource Land (1109) at HK$21.85, sold & switched to CCC & LFC, and now switch back.
- Reduced 2% China Life (2628/LFC) at HK$24.1
I plan to sell 100% Apple (AAPL) if it reach US$550, 11% China Life at US$48, 33% IBM at US$190, 20% Deckor Outdoor (DECK) at around US$78-79.
With the advance in China equity market especially China Life, Bilibala's return rised to 15%, therefore, I will increase 2013 return forecast from 10-13% to 15-17%.
Bilibala's October preformance:
Thanks to Google Inc (GOOG), Deckor Ourdoor (DECK), Starbucks Corp (SBUX) and Apple Inc (AAPL)'s share price advance, return increased siginficantly from 4.5% to 9.6% in October. I will increase the 2013 forecast return from 8%-10% to 10-13%.
2013 M10 YTD results still lower than global benchmark, and lower than Bilibala's past performance, primarily due to the following:
- (2.8%) related to 15% unrealized gains reduction in China Life (LFC) through out the year
- (2.6%) related to bad decision lead to a 35% losses in Barrick Gold (ABX) in 1st half of the year, dropping of gold price trigger a free fall of the gold stock, instead of retreat, invest further and enlarge the losses which can be avoided.
- (2.0%) related to bad analysis lead to a13% losses in Apple Inc (AAPL) in Q2, I estimated Q1 earnings and its values correctly, but investment time inconsistent with the market.
This is a pricy lesson, without the 2nd and the 3rd mistakes, Bilibala's return should have been 14.4 with a potential to meet my past performance by the end of the year.
| 2013/10 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | |
| US S&P | 23.2% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 67.2% |
| CA TSX | 7.6% | 4.0% | -11.1% | 14.4% | 57.0% |
| UK FTSE | 14.1% | 5.8% | -5.6% | 9.0% | 56.4% |
| HK HIS | 2.4% | 22.9% | -20.0% | 5.3% | 104.9% |
| CN SHI | -5.6% | 3.1% | -21.7% | -14.3% | 96.8% |
| GlobalBenchmark | 11.3% | 11.8% | -10.4% | 4.2% | 81.5% |
| Bilibala | 9.6% | 23.1% | -7.6% | 6.4% | 115.2% |
* Global Benchmark calculated basd on regional index performance, weighted averaged by Bilibala's yearly regional asset mix.
Assets Mix (as of Oct 31, 2013)
By region
- US 44%
- Emerging 36%
- Canada 13%
- Europe Market 7%
By Industry
- Insurance 19%
- IT 14%
- Banking 13%
- Telecom 11%
- Consumer 9%
- Food 7%
- Energy 7%
Top Holding (over 70% concentration, as of Oct 31, 2013)
1. Google Inc (GOOG) since 09 btw US$287 - 601
Google Inc. (Google) is a global technology company focused on improving the ways people connect with information. The Company generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. As of December 31, 2011, the Company's business was focused on areas, such as search, advertising, operating systems and platforms, and enterprise. Businesses use its AdWords program to promote their products and services with targeted advertising. In addition, the third parties that comprise the Google Network use its AdSense program to deliver relevant advertisements that generate revenue.
2. China Mobile (CHL) since 05 btw HK$36 - 76
China Mobile Limited is a telecommunication company which provides mobile telecommunications and related services in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and directly-administered municipalities in Mainland China and Hong Kong. As of December 31, 2012, its total customer reached 710 million. The largest in the world.
3. China Life (LFC) since 03 btw HK$3.6 - 22.5
China Life Insurance Company Limited is a China-based life insurance company. The Company through its subsidiaries is engaged in writing of life insurance business, providing life, annuities, accident and health insurance products in China. It has a dominant market shares of above 40% in China's life insurance in force policies.
4. Manulife Financial (MFC) since 09 btw CA$9.7 - 19.5
Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) is a Canada-based financial services group with principal operations in Asia, Canada and the United States. The Company's segments are Asia, Canadian and U.S. Divisions and the Corporate and Other segment. The Company's international network agents and distribution partners offers financial protection and wealth management products and services to clients. It also provides asset management services to institutional customers.
5. Tiffany + Co (TIF) since 10 btw US$46 - 55
Tiffany + Co. is a holding company that operates through its subsidiary companies. The Company's principal subsidiary, Tiffany and Company (Tiffany), is a jeweler and specialty retailer whose principal merchandise offering is jewelry. Its the 2nd largest Jewelry company in the world.
6. Wells Fargo (WFC) since 08 btw US$12.5 - 25
Wells Fargo +Company is a bank holding company. The Company is a diversified financial services company. It has three operating segments: Community Banking, Wholesale Banking and Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement. It is also the largest investment in Warren Buffet's Burkshire Hathaway stock portfolio which he bought & hold and still keeps buying for over 20 years.
7. China Construction Bank (0939) since 05 btw HK$2.4 - 5.35
China Construction Bank Corporation is a commercial bank. The principal activities of the Group are the provision of corporate and personal banking services, conducting treasury business, the provision of asset management, trustee, finance leasing, investment banking, insurance and other financial services. The bank has approximately 13,629 domestic branches, it is the second largest bank in China by market capitalization.
8. Starbucks Corporation (SBUK) since 10 btw US$31 - 46.5
Starbucks Corporation is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee operating in 60 countries. The Company purchases and roasts coffees that it sells, along with handcrafted coffee, tea and other beverages and a variety of fresh food items, through Company-operated stores. As of September 30, 2012, it operated 9,405 Company-operated stores and 8,661 licensed stores.
9. General Electric (GE) since 08 btw US$9.5 - 22.3
General Electric Company (GE) is a diversified technology and financial services company. The products and services of the Company range from aircraft engines, power generation, water processing, and household appliances to medical imaging, business and consumer financing and industrial products.
10. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) since 09 US$29 - 45
The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The Company operates in five business segments: Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer Products and Interactive.
11. Deckor Outdoor (DECK) since 12 btw US$35 - $38
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs footwear developed for both high performance outdoor activities and everyday casual lifestyle use. The Company markets its products under three brands: UGG, Teva, and Sanuk.
12. Suncor Energy (SU) since 11 btw CA$29 - 33.5
Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor) is an integrated energy company. The Company is focused on developing petroleum resource basins-Canada's Athabasca oil sands. In addition, the Company explore for, acquire, develop, produce and market crude oil and natural gas in Canada and internationally, and the Company transports and refines crude oil, and market petroleum and petrochemical products primarily in Canada. The Company operates under three segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing.
13. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) since 11 btw US$63 - 68
Royal Dutch Shell plc (Shell) is an independent oil and gas company. The Company owns, directly or indirectly, investments in the numerous companies constituting Shell. Shell is engaged worldwide in the principal aspects of the oil and gas industry and also has interests in chemicals and other energy-related businesses.
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過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!
坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?
bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去10年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.7%, 累積回報 410%. 經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.
儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.
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