Bilibala Finance 投資財金, 勝負難分, 分析技藝, 受用一生
Bilibala finance 除了帶你進入財金世界, 分析大市走勢, 企業財務報告, 估值評估. 也帶你穿梭 billy ++bilibala 的分析過程, 他的交易, 持有, 甚至挫敗經驗. 借此反照一個投資者如何跌進, 如何打破那 70% 人失敗的宿命. 作為一個基督徒投資者在一個變幻莫測的金融領域學習作神有所為有所不為的忠信管家.
仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.
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- Add back Apple Inc (AAPL) at US$520, as per analysis + comments from last week. Just for short term, target to sell at US$550.
- Sell all Goldman Sech (GS) at US$161.5 on Fireday, purchased around US$158, switch to Apple Inc
- Sell all Home Depot (HD) at US$77.8 on Friday, purchased around US$76, switch to Apple Inc
- IE: revenues $79.8B down 1% (primarily due to the 17% fall in Power + Water segment), profit $10.3B down 1%
- FS: revenues $33.2B down 2%, profit $5.8B down 3%
- EPS: 3Q $0.36, up 0% and 9M $1.11 up 4%
- GE is the leader in all its participated segments, such leading postions should keep GE earning at high margin.
- The estimated 2013 EPS should range between $1.55 to $1.65 and 2014 EPS around $1.75 to $1.85.
- 2014 Revenue may fall due to close off of consumer segment partly offset by increase in operating segments' orders
- My target price will keep at $29, since it's already rised to $26.4, my recommendation will switch from Buy to Hold.
- (2.8%) related to 15% unrealized gains reduction in China Life (LFC) through out the year
- (2.6%) related to bad decision lead to a 35% losses in Barrick Gold (ABX) in 1st half of the year, dropping of gold price trigger a free fall of the gold stock, instead of retreat, invest further and enlarge the losses which can be avoided.
- (2.0%) related to bad analysis lead to a13% losses in Apple Inc (AAPL) in Q2, I estimated Q1 earnings and its values correctly, but investment time inconsistent with the market.
| 2013/10 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | |
| US S&P | 23.2% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 67.2% |
| CA TSX | 7.6% | 4.0% | -11.1% | 14.4% | 57.0% |
| UK FTSE | 14.1% | 5.8% | -5.6% | 9.0% | 56.4% |
| HK HIS | 2.4% | 22.9% | -20.0% | 5.3% | 104.9% |
| CN SHI | -5.6% | 3.1% | -21.7% | -14.3% | 96.8% |
| GlobalBenchmark | 11.3% | 11.8% | -10.4% | 4.2% | 81.5% |
| Bilibala | 9.6% | 23.1% | -7.6% | 6.4% | 115.2% |
By region
- US 44%
- Emerging 36%
- Canada 13%
- Europe Market 7%
By Industry
- Insurance 19%
- IT 14%
- Banking 13%
- Telecom 11%
- Consumer 9%
- Food 7%
- Energy 7%
Top Holding (over 70% concentration, as of Oct 31, 2013)
1. Google Inc (GOOG) since 09 btw US$287 - 601
Google Inc. (Google) is a global technology company focused on improving the ways people connect with information. The Company generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. As of December 31, 2011, the Company's business was focused on areas, such as search, advertising, operating systems and platforms, and enterprise. Businesses use its AdWords program to promote their products and services with targeted advertising. In addition, the third parties that comprise the Google Network use its AdSense program to deliver relevant advertisements that generate revenue.
2. China Mobile (CHL) since 05 btw HK$36 - 76
China Mobile Limited is a telecommunication company which provides mobile telecommunications and related services in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and directly-administered municipalities in Mainland China and Hong Kong. As of December 31, 2012, its total customer reached 710 million. The largest in the world.
China Life Insurance Company Limited is a China-based life insurance company. The Company through its subsidiaries is engaged in writing of life insurance business, providing life, annuities, accident and health insurance products in China. It has a dominant market shares of above 40% in China's life insurance in force policies.
4. Manulife Financial (MFC) since 09 btw CA$9.7 - 19.5
Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) is a Canada-based financial services group with principal operations in Asia, Canada and the United States. The Company's segments are Asia, Canadian and U.S. Divisions and the Corporate and Other segment. The Company's international network agents and distribution partners offers financial protection and wealth management products and services to clients. It also provides asset management services to institutional customers.
5. Tiffany + Co (TIF) since 10 btw US$46 - 55
Tiffany + Co. is a holding company that operates through its subsidiary companies. The Company's principal subsidiary, Tiffany and Company (Tiffany), is a jeweler and specialty retailer whose principal merchandise offering is jewelry. Its the 2nd largest Jewelry company in the world.
6. Wells Fargo (WFC) since 08 btw US$12.5 - 25
Wells Fargo +Company is a bank holding company. The Company is a diversified financial services company. It has three operating segments: Community Banking, Wholesale Banking and Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement. It is also the largest investment in Warren Buffet's Burkshire Hathaway stock portfolio which he bought & hold and still keeps buying for over 20 years.
7. China Construction Bank (0939) since 05 btw HK$2.4 - 5.35
China Construction Bank Corporation is a commercial bank. The principal activities of the Group are the provision of corporate and personal banking services, conducting treasury business, the provision of asset management, trustee, finance leasing, investment banking, insurance and other financial services. The bank has approximately 13,629 domestic branches, it is the second largest bank in China by market capitalization.
8. Starbucks Corporation (SBUK) since 10 btw US$31 - 46.5
Starbucks Corporation is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee operating in 60 countries. The Company purchases and roasts coffees that it sells, along with handcrafted coffee, tea and other beverages and a variety of fresh food items, through Company-operated stores. As of September 30, 2012, it operated 9,405 Company-operated stores and 8,661 licensed stores.
9. General Electric (GE) since 08 btw US$9.5 - 22.3
General Electric Company (GE) is a diversified technology and financial services company. The products and services of the Company range from aircraft engines, power generation, water processing, and household appliances to medical imaging, business and consumer financing and industrial products.
10. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) since 09 US$29 - 45
The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The Company operates in five business segments: Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment, Consumer Products and Interactive.
11. Deckor Outdoor (DECK) since 12 btw US$35 - $38
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs footwear developed for both high performance outdoor activities and everyday casual lifestyle use. The Company markets its products under three brands: UGG, Teva, and Sanuk.
12. Suncor Energy (SU) since 11 btw CA$29 - 33.5
Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor) is an integrated energy company. The Company is focused on developing petroleum resource basins-Canada's Athabasca oil sands. In addition, the Company explore for, acquire, develop, produce and market crude oil and natural gas in Canada and internationally, and the Company transports and refines crude oil, and market petroleum and petrochemical products primarily in Canada. The Company operates under three segments: Oil Sands, Exploration and Production, and Refining and Marketing.
13. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) since 11 btw US$63 - 68
Royal Dutch Shell plc (Shell) is an independent oil and gas company. The Company owns, directly or indirectly, investments in the numerous companies constituting Shell. Shell is engaged worldwide in the principal aspects of the oil and gas industry and also has interests in chemicals and other energy-related businesses.
過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!
坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?
bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去10年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.7%, 累積回報 410%. 經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.
儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.
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