Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Bilibala finance updates 14/06/04

Bilibala Finance 投資財金, 勝負難分, 分析技藝, 受用一生
             
Bilibala finance 除了帶你進入財金世界, 分析大市走勢, 企業財務報告, 估值評估. 也帶你穿梭 billy ++bilibala 的分析過程, 他的交易, 持有, 甚至挫敗經驗. 借此反照一個投資者如何跌進, 如何打破那 70% 人失敗的宿命. 作為一個基督徒投資者在一個變幻莫測的金融領域學習作神有所為有所不為的忠信管家.
             
仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.
             
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Last week's transactions:
 
For long term
  • Added 26% Barclay Plc (BCS) at US$16.3
For short term
  • Reduced 100% Suncor Energy (SU) at CA$42, switched and added +10% Manulife Financial (MFC) at CA$20.1, +13% Dream Office (D.UN) at CA$29.4 and +80% Loblaws Inc (L) at CA$46.0. I will switch back when the oil and gas stock price retreated.
  • Decided to keep the short term investment portion (19%) of Walt Disney for 2 more months, target to sell at US$82.5 or more.
Top Holding (over 75% concentration, as of Jun 04, 2014)

  1. Google Inc (GOOGL) since 2009 btw US$144 - 545 (recalculated reflect 2:1 split)
  2. China Mobile (CHL/0941) since 2005 btw HK$36 - 81
  3. Tiffany + Co (TIF) since 2010 btw US$46 - 55
  4. Manulife Financial (MFC/0945) since 2009 btw CA$9.7 - 19.5
  5. China Life (LFC/2628) since 2003 btw HK$3.6 - 22.5
  6. Wells Fargo (WFC) since 2008 btw US$12.5 - 25
  7. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) since 2009 btw US$29 - 71
  8. Amazon.com (AMZN) since 2014 btw US$292 - 306
  9. Starbucks Corporation (SBUK) since 2010 btw US$31 - 72
  10. General Electric (GE) since 2008 btw US$9.5 - 25.3
  11. China Construction Bank (0939) since 2005 btw HK$2.4 - 5.35
  12. Tencent Holding (2988) since 2014 btw HK$98 - 103 (recalculated reflect 5:1 split)
  13. Deckers Outdoor (DECK) since 2012 btw US$35 - 76.7
  14. Berkshire Hathaway since 2009 btw US$56 - 113.8   
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過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!
 
坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?
bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去11年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.5%, 累積回報 490% (from 2003 to 2013).
 
經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.
 
儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.
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