Bilibala finance 13/10/30 comments on Apple Inc

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Comments on Apple Inc's Q4 results

Q4 Facts:

• Sales: 33.8M iphone up 25.7% compare to 2012 Q4, 14.1M ipad up 0.7% and 4.6M Macs down 6%
• Revenue: $37.5B up 4.2%
• EPS: $8.31 down 5.1%
• Gross margin down from 40% to 37%

2013 Fasts:

• Revenue: $171B up 9.2%
• EPS: $40.03 down 10.3%
• Gross margin down from 40% to 37%

2014 Q1 Forecast (per Apple Inc):

• Revenue: $55B to $58B, compare to $54.5B in 2013 Q1
• Gross margin 36.5% - 37.5%, compare to 38.6%
• Operating expenses $4.4B to $4.5B, compare to $3.9B
• Which means Apple Inc expected net earning to be $11.6B to $12.9B, compare to $13.1B or down 1.5% to 11.4%

Comments:

Strong sales in iphone is a good news, I still think iphone is the best phone in the market, given the great harmonize between its hardware & software. According to ComScore, Apple has 40.7% smart phone market as of Aug 13, while a) consumers will buy new phones every two years, b) in coming 2 years, more additional consumers will switch to smart phone; c) potential deal with China Mobile to increase iphone sales.

 

If there are no strong competitor enter into the market in near future, sales will sustend, so I think Apple's 2014 Q1 Forecast is quite conservative and should easily achieve.

 

As Apple Inc's current price over earning ratio is similar to IBM, an much more "mature" company lack of chance to enjoy double digit growth, I think Apple Inc's market price is fairly reasonable. I change the target price from US$500 to US550. If it can finalize the deal with China Mobile, it will worth US$590.

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過去二百年, 數據顯示升幅最大的投資工具是股票, 有11%, 其次是債劵 7%, 第三才是香港人最迷信的房地產 6%, 現金是不斷貶值, 最差的投資, 而黃金只僅僅跑贏 3-4% 的通脹. 股票雖然升幅最驚人, 但短期波幅最大, 股票選擇繁多而參差, 令到投資者在回報上出現更驚人的反差: 竟有七成人在股票上輸錢!

坊間有林林種種教你買股炒股玩窩輪的書, 股民的結局又是否因而改寫呢?

bilibala 股票基金投資組合過去10年所管理的資產淨值增加卅倍, 平均每年回報有17.7%, 累積回報 410%. 經過金融風暴這樣的暴跌的洗禮, 損失超過 63%(已比恆指和上証跌幅細), 最後仍能否極泰來, 再創新高.

儘管如此, 聽他意見的朋友仍有無數損手爛腳的時侯. 仍是一句: 這是個分享 bilibala 分析的地方. 其分析可能對你受用終身, 但未必能幫你賺到一點金. 若無法保守你的心, 就該趁早離場鬆人.