經濟數據分析09年第36周

- 美國失業率
- 加拿大大選
- 中國 QFII 對股市影響

USA
Overall

• 2Q revised productivity up to +6.6% from +6.4% in 1st draft (better than expect, +6.4%)

Consumer market

• Aug auto sales up to 5.3M from 4.2M in Jul & Aug truck sales up to 4.9M from 4.2M in Jul. Thanks to the Cash for Clucker program that government offer $4,500 for auto buyers who trade in their 2nd hand cars
• Aug ISM index up to 52.9 from 48.9 in Jul (better, 50.5), again, above 50 means out of recession from a technical point of view
• Aug ISM Service up to 48.4 from 46.4 in Jul (better, 48.0)
• Jul factory orders up to +1.3% from +0.9% in Jun (worse, +2.2%)

House market

• Jul pending home sales down to +3.2% from +3.6% in Jun (better, +1.5%)

Job market

• Aug unemployment rate up to 9.7% from 9.4% in Jul (worse, 9.5%)
• Aug non-fram payroll pos up to -216k from -276k in Jul (inline, -230k)
• Aug ADP employment up to -298k from -360k (worse, -250k)
• 08/29 initial jobless claim down to 570k from 574k (worse, 564k)

Canada

• Jun GDP up to +0.1% M/M from -0.5% M/M in May
• Aug unemployment rate up to 8.7% from 8.6% in Jul
• Aug net change in employment up to +27.1 from -44.5 in Jul, looks like a catch up to me, i want to see the trend in Sep & Oct before I can confirm the unemployment situation has already touch the peak