Saturday, September 26, 2009

經濟數據分析 09年 第39周 - 09/25/09


USA

Overall

This week, most of the econ data are worse than expectation other than the jobless claim. It once again confirm the recovery is happening but on the other hand, the pace of recovery will be slower than most of the economists' expectation. This is inline with Bilibala's expectation, a slow recover create uncertainty along the way, but at the same time, giving the government time to find and try out solution on how to deal with the future inflation & improve the regulation on how to oversee the financial institutions.

  • Aug leading indicators down to +0.6% from +0.9% (worse than expect, +0.7%)

Consumer market

  • Aug durable orders down -2.4% from +4.8% in Jul (worse, +0.4%)
    Aug durable orders (ex-transportation) down 0.0% from +0.9% in Jul (worse, +1.0%)

Job market

  • 09/19 Initial jobless claim down to 530k from 551k last week (better, 550k)
  • 09/12 continuing jobless claim down to 6,138k from 6,261k last week (better, 6,183k)

House market

  • Jul FHFA housing price index up to 0.3% from +0.1% in Jun (worse, +0.5)
  • Aug existing home sales down to 5.1M from 5.24M in Jul (worse, 5.35M)
  • Aug new home sales up to 429k from 426k in Jul (worse, 440k)

Canada

Consumer market
  • Jul retail sales down to -0.6% from +1.0%
  • Jul retail sales (ex-auto) down to -0.8% from +1.0%

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